Relevance of Opinion Poll In The 2014 Elections

As election of 2014 is approaching heart beat of every political party is rising and to make it more intense there are opinion polls coming every week.The very interesting fact about the opinion poll is that opinion of political parties is divided. All political parties are however privately agree that  these opinion polls are actually very beneficial for them as they not only provide them an opportunity to analyze their election strategy.But at the same time there is growing controvery about the opinion poll.

Opinion polls are purely statistical analysis using both inductive and deductive methods of reasoning to find out probables.All that matters here is accuracy of samples and the scale at which they are carried out.It is not possible that any marketing agency will cover the whole country or for that matter a particular state ,therefore,reliability of opinion poll is often doubted.Opinion polls were started in late eighties and with the passage of time they gained popularity.Opinion poll also attracted many political analysts who developed new techniques to predict the outcome of election. Some of agencies even borrowed techniques from foreign agencies.

For electionof 2014 once again opinion polls are being carried out by many agencies.And in all the opinion polls BJP led NDA is leading.Despite the fact that in India North and South regions behave differently in all most all the elections held,it is interesting to see that what will be the reaction of these regions in 2014 election.The NDA has praised these opinion polls only because they are supporting as well as enhancing its prospects forthe next government.As usual the Congress Party led UPA is facing rough weather in all the opinion polls ,therefore,it is critical of all the opinion polls.

In latest opinion poll conducted by ABP-Neilsen NDA is getting 229 to 233 seats is based on more than twenty nine thousands samples and seems to be accurate.It has divided the whole country into four parts and then concluded that in the north India BJP In south will win 81seats out of 151seats

.In south India BJP will win 18seats out of 134 seats.Ineast India it will win 36 seats out of 142 seats.Finally in the west India BJP will win 74 seats out of 116 seats.

As far as the vote share is concerned BJP is leading with 33% followed by UPA with 26%.Modi is still the most popular candidate for the PM post with 54% popularity graph.Regional parties will also play important role in the government formation.Among the regional partiesTMC,AIDMK,BJD and YSR Congress will play very important role.In short the so called Third Front will not only win168 seats but even disturb NDA equation of forming the next government.

Mystery Of Missing Malaysia Plane

The air crash of Malaysian plane MH370 that went missing on 8th March 2014 with 239 passengers is perhaps the most mysterious accident of air aviation history. For first few days neither the government nor aviation experts were able to conclude any thing substantial about the air crash and every hour there was a new story about the crashed plane.In the twenty first century when technology is so advanced that Google can find out a narrow lane of a colony and when man has reached beyond Moon, it is shocking and unfortunate that for more than twenty days there was no concrete evidence of the plane.

In the beginning, there was a lot of confusion in Malaysian aviation department about actually what had happened with the plane MH370.The captain of the plane Zaharie Ahmad Shah and his possible involvement in the accident has raised many questions than answers we are getting. His credentials need to be checked very carefully because whatever happened with the plane is not possible without serious human error or because of malicious intention of the captain.

As per the most reliable outcome of twenty days search operation by more than twenty countries the debris of the plane are  2345 km south west of Australia or to be more precise half way to Antarctica. Plane flew for one hour on right flight path but all of a sudden it turned to left and flew in the Indian Ocean and kept on flying till its fuel tank emptied and it crashed into the Indian Ocean. How it happened is a big mystery because the direction in which the plane flew is not at all the aviation route and even if it is assumed for a time being that the pilot has missed the route there are more than ten equipments to guide the pilot about possible mistake and will guide him to take corrective measures. Unless and until the pilot is hell bent upon destroying the plane, such accident is not possible.

Boeing 777has ultra modern technology which aids in flight control.It has Alpha Protection(a-prot) which prevents stalling and the effect of windshear,if the plane is in auto pilot mode.It has also high speed protection which will automatically recover from an over speed and there are Velocity Maximum Operational and Mach Maximum Operational devices to recover the plane from any difficulties. The Boeing 777 also has Electronic  Flight Control System(EFCS)and 4 Actuators Control Electronics(ACE)and three Primary Flight Computers namely Captain's,First Officers and Stand by.In addition there are two Flight Control Data Computers (FCDC) that read  information from the sensors such as air speed and altitude.This is fed with the GPS data into three redundant processing units known as Air Data Inertial Reference Units (ADIRU).

Now no one can even imagine how a captain of the Boeing 777 can miss the flight path and can keep on flying in the Ocean without any warnings.Therefore what is required is to examine the whole episode of air crash with open mind and develop suitable guide lines for the future safety of passengers.Talking in air and providing sensational stories can't help the Malaysian Government which seems to be divided over this issue.The air crash has to examined with terrorist attack angles also because two passengers boarded the plane with forged passport.The American Defence Minister's theory that the plane might be used for air attack can't be ruled out.

Now when the debris of the plane is located approximately 2,500 km away from Australian coast, it is not an easy job to recover the debris because the waved are quite strong in that area and they are located so far away that it is not possible for a plane without fuel support to reach the spot and even get its photographs.Satellite imaging is being used to ascertain about debris and the government has rulled out any possibility of survivor.The chances of recovery of dead bodies are near impossible which will give double blow to the relatives of the passengers.Let us pray for the departed souls.

BJP :Politics for Power or Politics Without Principles

Politics in India has become a dirty word and neither the politicians nor the political parties are trying to do something concrete to protect faith of people in politics.As election approaches there is a movement as well as exchange of leaders from one party to another and the party which was generally not involved in unethical politics had become now the centre of shift of loyalty.There is a rat race towards BJP and all those politicians who feel either neglected or fear defeat are joining BJP.There is no discrimination who is joinining BJP for what. Everything is being done to win the election. No doubt BJP leaders are riding on  Modi wave but their over confidence has led to many undesirable decisions.

What many people might have missed in fast moving political scene is that BJP may be looking very solid from the top but there are many smothering factors creating discerning situations.First, the way seats adjustment and distribution have taken place had never happened in the history BJP .It is difficult to understand why Modi loyalists are afraid of some senior leaders or a group of leaders.This is not the BJP we know for long and this is not the way of handling election.This political management may provide open opportunities for its opponents to create environment of suspicion in the mind of people.We must remember that BJP has a  strange history of being a looser from a very strong position.It is because of its wrong selection techniques of candidates and over dependence on the few leaders.

In all the election surveys BJP led NDA is leading and may form next government inthe centre but this also depends upon how election is managed.Till now every day some or other leader is raising voice of descent or revolting against the central leadership either for seat adjustment or for being neglectd.People failed to understand why was Modi hell bent upon fighting the election from Varanasi.What happend after that is not very  good for the party as it created a lot of confusion and gave opposition a chance to create doubt in the minds of the people.

After that leaders who have just joined the party are being preferred in the place of old leaders of the party. Like Ram Kripal Yadav contesting from Patliputra seat  has annoyed many BJP leaders in Bihar. Changing of seats of M.M.Joshi Kalraj Mishra and Lal Ji Tandon is posing inside fighting in U P.It clearly indicates that BJP is compromising with outsiders for power.In Rajasthan a senior leader like Jaswant Singh was denied ticket from Barmerh despite his announcement that it is his last election and now he decided to fight election as an independent candidate.It is not a good thingh for BJP in this State as it will disturb the political equation .And to our utter surprise this seat was given to a leader who have joined BJP just four days ago leaving Congress party.Such stories are present in every state.
In a nail biting fight in the comming election which has four major players: the Congress Party,AAP,BJP and the reginol parties;any mismanagement or miscalculation is very hurting.It is therefore for every party to this election will give a new lesson to learn.For BJP ,four states UP,Bihar,Rajasthan and Gujarat are very important and its prospects in 2014election will largely depend on the result of these states.After that who are its partners in Orissa,Tamilnadu,Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal will decide about its future.Without support of the regional parties from these four states it is not possible to form the govrrnment at the centre.Therefore what is required is better political management of not only BJP election but also the new partners.

According to some political thinkers, some leaders of BJP are carrying their hidden agenda against senior leaders like Advani ,Joshi Jaswant Singh etc.In fact BJP is now dominated by a few political paraciteswho are expert in manipulation and are busy in self gratification.The important question is that does it indicate the end of Advani era?Or BJP is being hijacked by a few leaders who are out for destroying the party.It has been also questioned that Raj Nath Singh  failed to live up to the expectations of both the Sangh Pariwar and grass root workers of BJP.Today even Shusma Swaraj has opened her mouth and said denial of ticket to Jaswant Singh is due to extraordinary.Now this is very interesting turn of matter.If these senior leaders form a group and press hard their demand after election then for Modi and his loyalists it will create new complexities.It said that a stich in time saves nine.

Crimean Crisis--A Beginning Of Second Cold War

The crisis of Crimea has created ripples in world politics. After Crimean war every thing was calm and quiet but the policy to incircle Russia by Western forces led to a flash point which may the beginning of the second phase of cold war between Russia and the west.What started as pushing western ideology in Ukraine to consolidate position of NATO countries and putting pressure on Russia for military and economic gains has led the world into a deeper crisis of probable war if not on a large scale but surely on smaller scale if NATO coutries are unable to understand gravity of the situation.

Russia under Putin leadership is moving towards its consolidation with a definite plan and unfortunately the European Union leaders failed to understand it.When the Western World was busy tackling the issue of Ukraine,very quietly Russia planned merger of Crimea using the policy of referendum. The referendum held on 14th March 2014, asked the people of Crimea and Sevastopol whether they want to join Russian  federal as subject or they wanted to restore the  1992 Crimean Constitution and Crimea's status as a part of Ukraine. 96% people voted in favor of joining Russia . Although the referendum was criticized by several countries and they called it illegitimate but it was also observed by 135 observers from 23 countries who reported no violations ..As a result of this referendum ,the Republic of Crimea declared its independence from Ukraine and requested to join  the Russian Federation. Russia gladly accepted the request and now Crimea is a part of Russia.

Now with this defeat in Crimean strategy, the European countries are feeling a situation of helplessness and in the reaction they declared economic sanctions against Russia and even suspended Russia from G8.Russia reacted sharply against such moves and warned the Western countries of serious consequences.These countries even moved against the refrendum in UN Security council but Russia vetoed the move.As the support gathering move Russian President ,Putin called Indian PM and explained his position in this respect. In the meantime Russian supporters captured naval base in crimea.Some of the Ukrainian navy personal are still under control of these people and Ukraine has warned them on this seige.

The things in Crimean region are moving very fast and any time any thing can happen as a result UN Secretary General is meeting  Russian President today to solve the issue.According to policy experts on European matters ,Russian ambition is more than Crimea as Putin wants to go back to pre 1990 position.NATO members are frightened by the Russian design and they started mobilising army in the member countries. US has put its war ships on alert and assured members of NATO that it will provide all out support to them in case of any agression by Russia.

Now ,what started as Ukraine inclination towards western economies for better future prospects and European Union desire to contain growing Russian power has reached to a fkashpoint where no party is ready to compromise its strategic position and it will certainly destabilised Ukraine economy. The way Russia is developing its control over this region is alarming and it feels such steps that Crimean neval base is necessary for  Russian dominance.As Russia has no other strategically important port  in Black  Sea than Crimea therefore, it is ready to go to any strenth and any strech.Political observers feek that in this situation NATO members can do little.However for some times NATO will be engaged for namesake  so that its existent is jusified. It also lead to cold war between Russia and Western world and the most sufferer will be Ukraine.

Not only Ukraine has lost Crimea as a vital ally and the naval port but it will be under increasing pressure of Russian expansion.If it goes with the European Union then its future will be under uncertainty and if it decides to remain at its original position then it will face Russian threat.

AAP and Media Controversy

In recent months,after sacrificing its government on the issue of Janlokpal,AAP is facing reality of politics.It is a well known fact that with the growing political aspirations AAP decided to fight general election of 2014 by declaring its candidates in all the States.The planning for fighting election was meticulous, as AAP has gone for membership drive all over the country. In its initial growth media has played a very important role and moreover Mr. Kejriwal knows how to manage media for political expansion of a newly borne party. Every thing was going well till both media and Kejriwal were supporting each other.

But situation started turning opposite way when media exposed many lies of AAP and in doing so there may be some exegerations howeverfor a political party these things sre nothing new. In the course of its growth such things are bound to appear but what is a worrying factor is the reactions of AAP.All the leaders of the party became very vocal about media and they started blaming it for running bias stories.It a fact that AAP leaders are known for their double standards like criticizing others for corruption but when it comes to their own leaders then they are mum.Be it about Som Nath Bharti or any other leaders they believe in self certification.

It this behavior of AAP which provided an opportunity for media to go into a deeper analysis of activities of its leaders.And to our utter surprise Kejriwal and his colleagues themselves provided many such opprtunities and stories to the media.Kejriwal video clips of directing  to a reporter to run a particular portion of his interview on a TV channel, is poor in taste and a sign of his  political immaturity. But is it not an eye opener for the people who rendered their support for this party on faith that it will be a different party and will stand differently in the politically corrupt world.Common man felt that our political system is so strong that it assimilates every new party and tranforms it into a similar product that behaves in the same manner.We may call it also political compulsion which forced AAP to adopt cheap method of popularity.

When these things were exposed by the media ,AAP felt that it is going to be  very destructive for its political survival and may even doom its chances in the coming election. ,Then reactions of its leaders became very violent.Kejriwal went on to say that media is very corrupt and if his party comes to the power then a group of media persons will be behind the bar.Nothing can be more damaging than such statements for any political party than to threaten media.It clearly indicates the mind set up of AAP leaders who not only believe in anarchy but are also dictator by nature. As far as my memory goes even during emergency of 1975  never suvh statements were given.Perhaps Mr. Kejriwal doesn't know that he is living in a democratic country which has a consitution and where people are protected by rule of the law.Such threat may also create difficulties for him as he is setting an agenda before the country that what his party thinks  about freedom of speech and expression.

Till now nothing has been done by AAP which gives any indication of its determination to bring political cleansing and eradicating corruption from the country.Contrary to this there are many other things which suggest that leaders of AAP are power hungry and believe in political opportunism.Look at the political drama going on during  Kejriwal visit to Gujarat and Bombay.Insiders reveal very shocking things that were going on during road show of Kejriwal in Gujarat and Mumbai.The way laws were flouted and mob was led, is an indication of political ideology  of AAP.The list of candidates for various seats are again suggests that a lot of compromises are being made to win the election and dinner diplomacy to collect funds are unpardonable mistakes.

What one can see from statements being made by AAP leaders are indication of growing frustration  due to poor election management.Secondly, it is quite clear that AAP is not going to have any impact on national political scene. Its impact is mostly limited to Delhi and a few metropolitan cities.When these things became clear to AAP then whatever is being done by its leaders is nothing but a political drama. And when this drama is not bearing any fruit then out of frustration Kejriwal speaks so many things and next day he  refutes."If my party comes to the power then I will send such repoters to the jail" is such a statement which not only to be condemned but should be dismissed with disdane because for comming to the power Mr Krjriwal has to fight elections for more than ten times.And by then his party will be more corrupt than any other political party.

Kejriwal story may get a finishing makeover when he fights election against Modi in Varanasi.Political analysts will find a very interesting story after election.It is important to  know that which forces are supporting  AAP to create political unstability .For Kejriwal nothing can be more sucidal than his decision to fight from Varanasi because his loss will erode his political credibility and the party even loose whatever gains it has in Delhi.

Battling BJP or A Battle for Varanasi

The election of 2014 is going to be unique in many ways. After  ten years of UPA rule Congress is suffering from identity crisis and the party is going to the election with such a low moral and utter confusion that its big leaders are either opting out of election or searching a safe seat.

On the other hand there is BJP riding on Modi Wave but facing a lot of internal conflicts.In this context both Modi and BJP are facing a situation of now or never and therefore, every seat in northern states has become very important.But it has given a new problem of seat adjusment and shifting of seating MP's .As a result there is a battle going on between big leaders of BJP.
It is not that only Congress is facing confusion but almost all other political parties are passing through a phase of indecision.When BJP played a gamble on Modi,there was great uproar in the party.
The opposition came from within the party as its Delhi  command felt that it is being ignored and its control over the party looked weakened.It was ,no doubt,very hurting for many senior leaders but there was no choice for them than to accept Modi as a new Awatar orSalvager of the party.

The only person who raised his voice against projecting of Modi as PM candidate was none other than L.K.Advani. The loin hearted leader ,whose unfulfilled desire of becoming PM was being buried for the second time.

For the grand old man this was very painful as he was the leader who brought the party to this stage where it can think of forming government. All his confidential people have deserted him at that juncture but today despite party winning they felt to be loosers.Today despite intervention of Sangh,ego clash between Modi and Advani.Modi loyalists are even
trying to shift Advani out of Gujarat.It seems very humiliating for Advani like senior leader. Now today every political analyst is busy in debating about Modi wave but there are serious problems with BJP.Internally it is fighting a battle for control over the party.Loyalists of Modi are determined to get a make over of party by pushing out old leaders. 

Therefore ,old leaders like L.K.Advani,M.M.Josi and many others are privately being asked not to fight this election.When they refused to do so then their seats are beingshifted in the name of creating winnability for the party.

However the real story is something else.Actually Modi and his policy makers are of the view that for success of Modi at National level,it is necessary to have complete control over the party and for this sacrifice as well as side lining of some serious contenders is required.

Now party will have to decide whether Modi is bigger than it or its neo ideology will be different from the earlier line.There is another question equally important that why is BJP hell bent upon making so many compromises against its original character and party line.Now everybody is welcomed in BJP which boasts of being a party with difference and an ideological party.

Again why are the leaders from UP and a few from Gujarat are being targeted?Is Modi and his coatrie afraid of them in their mission of PM making?

It is true that challenge only comes from this group of leaders not only today but when time comes for making adjustment in the cabinet formation.

Modi wants that there should be no murmuring at later part therefore game must be played right now.No doubt a time has come when party has to move out of illusion and take corrective decision.

Leaders may come and go but party remains.Recent pronouncements of Sangh (RSS) are indications that it  is also not enamored of steps taken by Modi loyalists.

Moreover in every state unit of BJP there is growing dissatisfaction over old leaders being ignored and new people are being encouraged.It may lead to inside fighting in the party causing irreparable damage.

Ever since the Congress party wss caught in corruption charges ,some political thinkers thought of projecting Modi as the candidate for PM.

Initially there was great doubt that how it will work as Modi is still not absolved for his failure and involvement  in Gujarat roits.The first revolt came from none other than JDU.

Its central leadership and especially Nitish Kumar, decided to break away from NDA,giving big jolt to the prospects of NDA coming to the power.Till now no major party had joined NDA or indicated to give its support for BJP.

What is happening that disgruntled leaders are in a rat race to join BJP which has started creating ripples in its cadre.

Now ,a very important question what happens if BJP fails to get 200 seats in the forthcoming election.I doubt that support will come from major parties like AIDMK or TMC for Modi.

Then there are two different possibilities-either Third Front will flex its mussels or BJP will have try some other leaders.And if the second possibility starts working then it will be disastrous for Modi.

But if Third Front comes to the power again chances of Modi to become PM will start evaporating.In both the situations Modi will be a great looser.

A common man can't be a future story teller therefore we have to wait and watch till the results are announced and all the permutations and combinations are tried.

Politics, Corruption and Election

Politics is a broader term  derived from 'politikos'which means engaged in the civic life or goverance. It,therefore , involves certain principles which govern our social and political life.In the beginning politics was mainly associated with the activities of the State however later on it became a set of policy matters related with a particular ideology.It further changed its meaning in democratic set up where it meant following a particular ideology.

In India the evolution of  politics is associated with growth of political States and  Chanayaka was a great political thinker of ancient times.His  political formulations are assets.Later on politics became more related to a particular king and therefore,for a long period politics mainly meant state policies.Common people have no role in politics and they merely followed what the State prescribed for them.

In modern day politics gained importance with the growth and expansion of democracy.However, it is this setup of the governance which also allowed politics to be twisted and  it also provided opportunities for corruption to get in the politics.Now a days politics and corruption are treated as synonymous and the biggest challenge of democracy is to get politics free from corruption. Now question arises what brings corruption into the politics.Is it the power or authority that is enjoyed while being in the politics?Or is it the system itself which pumps and promotes corruption in politics?Anwers to these questions may vary in numbers but both of these are equally responsible for linkage between politics and corruption.Our system gets eroded by falling values which in turn promotes corruption in all the walks if life and politics being one of them.

It is equally true that corruption also exists in other countries and in other forms of government but our main focus will be growing political corruption in India.The issue of corruption erupted even before India got independence but during those days under current of social and political evolution was so strong that it didn't allowed corruption to grow disproportionately. The mainstream leaders were strong enough to foresee possible chances of being corrupt and therefore, they developed safeguards against such situations and possibilities.However practically everything that has happened in the independence era has afforded greater incentives to ,as well as opportunities for corruption,particularly large scale graft by the politicians and bureaucracts and this tendency continued to downflow. According to Gurnnar Myrdal, "Corruption is fundamentally nothing but one specific manifestation of the soft state. It is the general setting of the soft state that makes corruption possible, while, circular causation with cumulative effects, the prevalence of corruption is a mighty influence  to keep these countries soft as states." After independence politicians for the first time realized that for being in the power it is important is to hold power.It gave rise to a nexus between politicians and bureaucracts.They adopted a common  method of exploiting the position of public responsibility for private gain ie the threat of obstruction and delay.Hence, corruption impedes the process of decision making and execution programms on all the levels. It increases the need for controls to check the dishonest officials at  the same time makes the honest officials reluctant to take decision on their own.

Now the third dimension to the issue of corruption is the system of election  under democracy.To be in power ,it is necessary to get elected.Since for fighting election there is no state funding ,hence private capital and black money become an essential part of modern elections.Since funds needed to fight election are huge ,here comes the business and corporate class ready to provide  funds to the politicians but it has its own cost ie political leverage in projects clearance and framing policies suitable to their interests.K.G.Basin story is a good example of it where a corporate sector made huge gains by manipulating goveronment policies .Going by a very modest calculation ,a parliament election will cost nothing less than 200 crores and a state assembly election will cost  a member around 50 to 75 crores. From where this money will come. Either from corruption or from the sources which will make a leader corrupt.Even parties like AAP and Communist are finding it very difficult to control election budgets.Therefore, it will not be exaggeration to say that elections are both means and ends of corruption in India.There are many leaders today who are etheir convicted on corruption charges or facing corruption charges.The massive wealth disclosed  by CBI and other investigsting agencies are eye opener.UPA II is more known for scandles and corruption cases than its achievements.The massive state revenue cheating and loot in 3G,Coalgate Commonwealth Games are shocking.It seems that our political system has become prone to such scandles.

Now what is the way out of fighting out corruption in developing countries? How can we protect our system free from the power elite.What we are facing today ,in general,it becomes very difficult to attack corruption through an anti corruption drive because if alarge section of our society including politicians,officials and businessmen are out to make the short term gains from corruption. However  be strong the angry protests of lower and middle class it is difficult in short run to eradicate corruption from our general life.The Power Structure that had evolved in last 300 years needs to be changed either through evolution or through revolution. It is the reason why all efforts made from time to time by parties like AAP and social groups and media have a short life.All that they  are trying to do is to create awareness among the people that corruption has entered into our lifestyle.It is very important to note that too much of the government control is the root cause of corruption but we are not sure that liberalization will bring great changes as it has happened in the Western countries.We need liberalism but what we need more than anything is enlightened political and business classes who will be ready to bear the responsibility of making the country in the corruption free.Till then Jai Hind.