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Tuesday 10 June 2014

Indo China Relationship :A New Power Balance in Asia

Indo-China relationship has been a matter of great interest among the political thinkers and policy makers.It has many phases and many dimensions since the beginning of 1950.In the initial days both Nehru and Chinese leadership tried to build up a foreign policy based on the principles of Panchsheel under which both the countries will respect boundaries of each other and will cooperate for economic growth. Nehru even said Hini Chini Bhai Bhai.But this euphoria was broken very shortly in 1962 when China attacked on NEFA border and captuered about 43000 sq.miles of Indian territory.Since then Indo China relationship became personality based than the principle based ie a few persons or politicians have iniatiated to bring back the relationship on track but these steps were short lived and short sighted like visit of Atal Vihari Bajpai in 1978 and visit of Rajiv Gandhi in 1985.

Chinese leadership is highly unpredictable and highly unreliable in regards to its international relations. It has a close relationship withUSSR but it was broken as soon as tgere was a dispute on border.The same has happened with India when India opposed Chinese move to capture Tibbet and to utter surprise of Indian leadership China has claimed its ownership on Indian areas in NEFA.Therefore dealing with the dragon requires great pragmatism and sterness in policy matters. 

Modi government from its very beginning , is trying to create a new power balance in Asia because of its look east policy and preference given to neighbouring countries that includes SAARC members. .It is to be remembered that China was among the first few countries that welcomed Modi on his win in the general elections.It may be concluded that Modi has already visited China three times as CM an therefore he has friendly relationship with Chinese leaders but is it so simple. Modi love for China must be seen in the light of his growing alienation with US after denial of Visa to him.The Sangh Pariwar has taken this step of US very seriously and felt hurt and therefore prevailed upon Modi to keep a distance from US and welcome those countries which are defying US influence to invest in Gujrat.As Chinese investment flourished in Gujarat it further helped to develop smooth relationship between Modi and China. 

As seen clearly from Indian government cold attitude at the time of swearing in ceremony and reply to US at the last. Now US seems to be perturbed by this cold behavior of Indian leadership and change of US ambassador in India was the first few steps taken by the US administration to create warmth in Indo US relationship but still things are not attheir best and it gives sufficient space for China to fill the gap.China wa ts a government in India which is not pro US if not pro China.It will  provide China sufficient space for maneuverability in South Eastern Chinese sea where China is planning to build up an artificial island bigger than Deo garsia an  US military base.

Besides the military gains Chinese leadership is more interested in the economic gains from India which has a 120 crores consumers market with 100 billion dollar trade . Since India's gains from this trade is not big and  Chinese gains are huge therefore China will liketo see trade fflourishing. As a result the visit of Chinese Foreign Minister can  be seen in tgis light.Now question arises that can India go ahead with China at the cost of its relationship with US? India largely depends  for arms supply on US and its allies therefore for the strategic treaty to move on and  be strengthened  India  needs a fine balancing act in its foreign policy. 

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