Crisis in Ukraine: A Revolution or An Expression of Nationalism

The history of UKRAINE is unique in many ways  in the world because despite several rounds of destruction and subjugation,  by Poland and Russia , the people of Ukraine never allowed Nationalism to die. Time and again Ukraine was divided between Poland,European countries and Russia but finally it was integrated with USSR in 1947 by the treaty of Paris. Perhaps people of Ukraine had experienced the worst kind of exploitation and under Stalin rule  Ukrainian national identity finally came to an end.Terror of Stalin rule was so devastating that more than 6.8 lacs people were either killed or proscuted between 1929 -1938.So what is happening today in Ukraine is nothing but expression of its nationalist identity and revival of its centuries long fight for self identity. Today Ukraine is in complete turmoil and situation seems to be very volatile. People of Ukraine are fighting for  freedom from autocratic rule and political corruption. This new turn of history may be because of government decision to not sign Agreement with EU, but the whole happening must be seen in broader perspective. It is a fight of divergent interests of Western countries, which promise a great future and fortunes to Ukrainian people, and of Russia which takes this movement as a threat to its so called socialist ideology. The turmoil that started in 2010 is very deep rooted. It goes back to Declaration of Ukrainian independence in 1991, when Ukrainian Parliament adopted "The Act of Independence" and  Leonid Kravchuk was elected as President. Initially international community viewed this development as normal but as time passed,strategic  positioning of Ukraine created vast interests and Western world found this country very useful to exert pressure on Russian design to regroup its old states. 1990's was a very bad period for Ukrainian economy as the country lost its 60% of GDP during this decade and for its survival it has to look towards Russian support. 

In the following years the story of the present day crisis was written. In 2004 election Viktor Yanukovych was declared as President, and Supreme Court declared his election rigged. A peaceful movement known as Orange Movement finally brought Viktor Yushchenko abd Yulia  Tymoshenko to the power. Since Russian Government don't like this group therefore, it reduced its support and again Viktor Yanukovych returned to the power in 2006.During this period economic conditions of Ukraine started worsening and political corruption became rampant as a result people once again looked towards West. In November 2013 people strongly demaned integration of Ukrainian economy with  the European Union. It is aly known as Euromaidan Protests . Since EU has promised to open its 500 million consumers market for Ukrainian firms which will provide a great boost to the economy, but in return Ukraine hss to go for economic, political and legal reforms. Ukraine has to adopt hundreds of EU Laws . People who are in a dire stste of affairs feel thst this agreement is a road to freedom from serfdom. 

As revolution built up , there were large scale protests all over the country but Independence Square has became the central location. As the government started using brutal state power to crush the movement there was large scale violence . The movement is being led by Vitali Klitschko and Yulia Tymoshenko who made the people feel that they have reached to their final destination where they have to make a choice between  European Democracy and Russian Dictatorship, between sovereignty and subjugation , between Prosperity and the poverty and so on. At both sides there are many things at stake and as movement progresses many new dimensions will be added. Russian leadership considers Ukrainian existence very important for its longer design of regional hegemony and will not be willing to sacrifice this old neighbor.Whereas Europe feels that Ukraine can serve its interests in long run. Therefore promises from both the sides are lofty and lucrative.It is for the people and leaders who are to decide. Opinion is divided and many people feel that the country may once again be under grip of Germany and some other European nations who will exploit it as it happened during World War II.They fear that EU promises may not be fulfilled and gains can easily be converted into losses. 

Since President has taken asylum in Russia and will try to do everything to get control back hence coming months will be crucial for Ukrainian people. The movement of the Russian army near Ukrainian boarders is just indication of what is going to unfold in near future. Despite warning from US and several other European countries there is no reaction from Putin.This indicates what is hidden in the future.We must remember that strategic importance of Ukraine for Russia and it is not ready to bend its back.The recent development are more worrying as Russian Parliament has supported Putin move to enter into Ukraine under pretext of saving Russian origin people there. Now question arises is it a beginning of war between Russia abd Wesr backed Ukraine.As Russia is not ready to listen US and European countries then war seems to be unavoidable.It seems that history is repeating itself and once again Ukraine is either going to be divided between Europe andRussia or will go through a phase of terror and exploitation.Whatever happens in future but for the people of Ukraine it is not good.Out of this movement their gains will be totally nullified because European Union will not provide any short term or long term relief.

Third Front of Indian Politics: A Reality Or A Myth

Indian politics has moved a long way from the shadow of Congress era when opposition hardly existed due to presence of stalwarts like Nehru and Mrs Gandhi. Time and again leaders oppesed to ideology of Congress tried to form a political group that will provide an alternative , however ,history of such moves is not heartening.  Third front refers to a group of parties and leaders who are not the part of the first front ie Congress or the second front ie BJP.The first major threat to the Congress was presented when Mr. Kamraj revolted but this lasted for a few years and finally politics of Indian once again became personality oriented.  At some occasions Jan Sangh or communist parties tried to break this monopoly but their success was limited to a few States. Therefore the question of rise of third front in Indian politics was non existent.The first major  move in this direction was made in post emergency period when a group of opposition parties decided to form Janata Party under guidance of Loknayak Jai Prakash Narayan in 1977.It is interesting to note here that most of its leaders were either  members of congress or their sufferings during  the period of emergency made them anti congress.This front has got tremendous success in the election and Morar ji Desai became Prime minister. But again this experiment lasted for two and half years and again Congress party came to power. So first experiment with third front was a failure .

After the Bofors scandal again third front came to the power  under leadership of V.P.Singh but due to its internal conflicts it lasted for merely one year. Again death of Rajeev Gandhi united Congress party and it reminded Indian political thinkers that so called third front is not feasible in this country. In post Narsimha Rao era once again chances of third front became bright and one after aother India had Mr.Dev Gauda and Mr.I.K.Gujral as PM. This was the best time for third front as Congress remained disunited and disillusioned. Lack of any big leader and aloofness of Gandhi family towards Congress affairs , provided an opportunity to the third front leaders to consolidate their position, however they failed to provide any United alternative to the people. Therefore politics became divided into two blocks-congress and BJP.But this period is full of twist and turn and it led to the growth of regional parties.  Now this regional dimension of Indian politics has become flag bearer of the third front movement in India. 

 

Regional leaders have great expectations and time and again they try to fulfill their hidden design and desire through formation of such political group. In the last election the third front idea wss floated but it failed to materialised. It looked like house divided from within and resentments were than agreement on every issue. Reasons are quite obvious every  party wanted its leader to become PM.Besides this hindrance, ideological differences are another unmovable block . Again in 2014, once again theory of third front is being floated and look at the irony of the fact that it has  leaders like Jay Lalita, Mamta Benerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav asPM contenders.Since Communist Party is at its low ebb therefore it can sacrifice its rights for PM but how can above three leaders will surpress their aspirations.And even if they are able to surpress their desire then what about their ego and how they will satisfy their electorate for not being PM.

Therefore third front future hangs in a unique balance -it cannot form its own Government but surely it  will make difficult for others to form their government. And who will be the worst sufferer.  No doubt ,it is BJP, especially when it is not in a position to form its own government. The third front may bargain with Congress or it can even press hard to yield PM post.Only future will tell us about real story but till then let us wait and watch this everlasting Indian political drama which is often played before every election under pretext of stopping Communal forces to form government. Basically formation of the Third Front is a suitable example of political opportunism which is totally deprived of political and economic ideology. Therefore , existence of the Third Front seems to be awkward and worthless.Most of the parties who participated actively in formation of the Third Front have no stand on the major issues like corruption, election reforms, black money, skill development etc.What is more surprising, there is no seat arrangement between these parties but they are confident that outcome of next parliamentary election will be in favour of this front What a day dreaming.

Telangana - From Agitation to Reality

 On 20th February 2014, the TELANGANA Movement  has finally reached  its  final destination when the Bill for TELANGANA was passed by both the Houses of the Parliament and it became 29th State of India. For this  great momenent ,the people of  Telangana region have to wait for more than 60 years and finally when this day has arrived then there are mixed reactions. Like every movement ,it has its  own cost also.More than thousand people who lost their lives were students of Usmania University which remaind  the centre of this movement. Many people may be surprised by this revelation that Telangana movement is the outcome of a social and political engineering .The rising aspirations of SC, ST and backward castes due spread of eduation  provided energy to this movement.Political opportunism and economic exploitation by upper caste, lack of job opportunities for lower caste people further intensified this movement. The demand of Hyderabad as capital of the new state symbolises all these under currents of the movement. Therfore this movement will give expression to rising desires of lower castes.And doubt history gives us a moment which leaves long lasting impression and leaders may forget what had happened  in Parliament and how the temple of democracy was vandalised but common man will keep this in his long lasting memory. After independence, the government of India has appointed a State Reorganization Commission in 1953 keeping in view the various complexities in the process of creating new States. On public demand the State of Hyderabad was disintegrated and Marathi speaking region was merged with Bombay and Kannada speaking region was merged with Mysore State. The State Reorganization Commission (SRC ) also recommended merger of Telugu speaking region of Hyderabad with Andhra State. After going through pros and cons of SRC recommendations, the Central Government decided to merge Telangana with Andhra Stateand a new  State known as Andhra Pradesh was formed on 1st November 1956 with special safeguard measures to protect interests of Telugu speaking people. 

The Telangana region cotributed tremendously to the growth of Andhra Pradesh but very soon it was realised by the people of Telangana that all the promises made under "Gentleman Agreement" have not been honored and discontent started growing. After a lot of deliberations, an all party agreement was signed on 19th January, 1969 for proper implementation of Gentleman Agreement, but discontent kept on growing and  agitation for Telangana became violent. The Telangana movement passed its several phases and finally from 2000 onwards ,this gained momentum with the formation of Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) led by K.Chandrashekar Rao.

In 2001, Congress Working Commitee sent a resolution to the  NDA government to look into this matter however it has rejected this proposal on the ground that problem of backwardness can be solved with proper utilization of the available resources.  After that again this movement  kept on moving but growing discontent among people of this region on many occasions became violent. Knowing the long term implications of the neglect of people's demand Home Minister P. Chidambaram announced formation of Telangana State on 9th December 2009. But instead of providing any solution to the problem it created stir and protests across Andhra Pradesh and Rayalseema. As a result the government has to announce the withdrawal of its notification on 23rd December. The government  appointed Justice Sri Krishna commission to look into the matter. But nothing concrete came out of all these exercise and finally on 17th February 2011,  non cooperation movement was started and it continued for sixteen days causing huge loss to state government. 

After many small and large threats of resignation and causing damage to the state property the Central Government finally decided to introduce Telangana State Bill on 17th February 2014 in the Lok Sabha and rest is the history .It was finally passed by both the Houses and now waiting for President nod.But the process of creating a new state will be remembered for its persistent struggle and dirty behavior of MPs .Now question arises if Telangana was a necessity then the decision to form twenty ninth State should not been delayed so much so that a system becomes a looser and faith of people in Parliamentary system is dampened.The logic of smaller states has to be studied in great detail and should  be examined in the light of performance of already created states.

Shocking Behaviour Of Politicians

Pandemonium in the Parliament is nothing new in the democracies, however what preceded in last few years are out of imagination of the common man in India. The temple of democracy is bleeding and it is hard to believe that this is the house where luminaries of Indian politics have worked hard to evolve a system that will safeguard intetests of people.I wonder how privileged were those people who have  seen J. L.Nehru, B.R.Ambedkar, Sardar Patel, Dr.Rajendra Prasad and many other great leaders working together to uplift people from black days of British rule.Going through their debating skills and standard , it is hard to believe that this country is now being represented by such low quality leaders.

Protest is not  bad and is not the issue in democracy, it is the method of the protest which is the worrying factor. Going by recent happening of various State Assemblies and Parliament it is shocking to see that leaders are behaving in most unruly manners. How can a people's representative will spray black pepper power or hit somebody with microphone or threatens parliament officials? And to cross every limit  now leaders started tearing up their own cloths and a minister is pointing out to be even open more clothes. What a shameful act? UP assembly had witnessed many worse acts but this was the hight of indecent behavior of a public figure. Some times it argued that whatever is happening in the Parliament or state assemblies is the reflection of the quality of politics which the country is experiencing. Who are leaders today and who are going to politics. Are they qualified enough to rule and run the nation? Year after the year, the number of people with criminal background are entering the Parliament. If we look into their background, it will be obvious that politics has become a dirty word for youth and they are not attracted towards politics. 

What happened in Rajya Sabha on 19th February 2014 is beyond imagination. A leader hits and misbehaves with Secretary General and he was not either sent out of the house. Is thistthe way we can protect our democracy? Is Telanga issue  above law of the nation? Nobody wants to be quoted and nobody protested and had courage to ask the chairman of the House to take stern action against these leaders.The reason is again a political calculation . Congress Party is busy thinking about its gains in Telanga and BJP is in doldrums  -" What is to be done?"Shocking and shameful. Leaders must remember that this new generation is watching them very carefully and days are not far away when such leaders will be thrown out of the politics. The recent election of Delhi is an excellent example of it.And rise of AAP and its growing strength will throw light on changing mood of Indian politics. 

Now time has come when political leaders will have to  change themselves or people will change them.It is quite simple that for a criminal behavior there should be a criminal law to deal with. Hurting other people and causing even heart attack to a leader amounts to a serious criminal act and therefore punishment should be very stringent. 

This question is very relevant here that our most of the leaders are coming with a very poor academic background with little knowledge of law and as a result often they failed to understand that how to participate in fruitful debate.And people must know that all this drama is not possible without the consent of top lesdership of redpective party. Therefore,some modalities have to be formulated to save the image of parliamentary democracy.

A Black Day of Indian Democracy

On 12th February when the common man saw what is happening in the parliament he felt ashamed for what leaders of the nation are doing in the pretext of protest. No doubt the issue of Telangana is tricky and sentimental for the people of Andhra Pradesh but can we allow such things to happen in the Lok Sabha. First question arises that why is Telangana needed? Isn't this issue created to create unrest in this region? Why was this bill not discussed earlier and why were MPs across the parties allowed to ransackedLok Sabha?

Telangana issue needs to be understood in the light of geographic and caste division of Andhra Pradesh. Economy of Andhra Pradesh is largely controlled by Telangana region. And TRS chief Mr. Chandrashekhar Rao initiated demand for a separate Telangana State in the name of better administration and development of this region. Very soon there was divergent views on this issue. The whole issue had now two parties-one who support formation of Telangana and another group who is opposing its formation. 

The worst thing is that Congress Party is playing this issue and even the Chief Minister Mr. Kiran Reddy threatened to resign on this issue. The whole thing is shrouded under politicalggains and losses as Congress feels that in the coming election it will face a very tough time in Andhra Pradesh therefore it played Telangana issue just before election. The whole Andhra Pradesh is burning and more than thousand people are dead protesting the division of their State and for Congress it is just simple. What happened with  Jagan Mohan Reddy is well known to the whole world. He was punished because he dare to challenge the Central leadership and especially Rahul Gandhi. CBI fails to solve simple criminal cases but it took great steps to solve cases related to disproportionate assets case of Jagan Reddy. It hurted Andhra pride and people supported Jagan Reddy party in election by giving him tremendous victory. 

Comming to the Yesterday story; all the seventeen MP should not be only suspended rather a criminal case must be filed so that in future no MP dares to play with law . Earlier we use to hear that some people with criminal records are sitting in the Parliament but it is shocking to see that actually these leaders behaved in criminal ways.How can we allow such things to happen in the Lok Sabha which is the temple of democracy. Using black pepper powder and knife to threaten leaders in the parliament is unpardonable act.

KG Basin :A Story of Loot Of Natural Resources

No country in the world will allow private sector to flourish at the cost of exploitation of its natural resources. KG Basin story is full of drama in which a government allows a private firm to play with rules and regulations of the nation and what is more surprising that the government even acted as if gains from the whole exercise are going in its own pocket. Before going back to a major policy changes that led to participation of private players to operate in oil and natural gas exploration in 1999, it is imperative to quote CAG report "PRODUCTION SHARING CONTRACTS BETWEEN THE GOVT. AND PRIVATE OPERATORS WERE DESIGNED TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CAPITAL EXPENDITURE BY PRIVATE CONTRACTORS, WHICH REDUCES GOVERNMENT'S SHARE OF OIL AND GAS REVENUE."

Under New Exploration Licensing Policy of 1999; the government allowed Reliance Industry to explore natural gas in KG Basin the largest gas basin in Asia, under Production Sharing Contract (PSC). The main objective was to  prevent hoarding of natural resources and to get a better price for them.  Further the government will gain progressive control over the gas sources. However when phase I and Phase II  were complted the original arearemained with the Reliance Industry  which began exploration of Phase III as a result it continues to hold ownership over entire 7600 sq.km.and what is more unique that the government has taken a volt face by declaring the whole area as discovery area. CAG comments" the contractor's opinion that petroleum was likely to exist in the entire contract area and could be produced after an exhaustive exploratory program is not in consonance with the PSC definition of Discovery Area which is centered on existence of petroleum based on wells drilled in that part. "
The contract given to the Reliance Industry has the concept of INVESTMENT MULTIPLIER which is a ratio between commutative net income and commutative capital investment.  As IM goes on increasing therefore in the long run profit of government will go on increasing, however it is also possible that private party will do everything to keep IM  stagnant. It is here  the whole contract turned to be unique--"if Investment Multiplier (IM) is less than 1.5 then profit is 10%; if IM is between 1.5- 2 then it's 16% and if IM goes above 2.5 then the government share of profit goes  to 85%." Do we have right to know HOW HAS THE PERSONAL GROWTH OF MUKESH AMBANI ASSESTS IS 341% MORE THAN ANY INDUDTRIALIST IN THE WORLD IN LAST 9YEARS.

Now Reliance Industry estimated initial cost to be 2.4 billion dollar in 2004, but it was revised to 5.2 billion dollars in 2006 so that IM remains below 2.5 and government gains are limited. Thus  as per the CAG report there is even reasons to believe that investment costs of Reliance Industry have been manipulated 

As regards to pricing policy the gains of the Reliance Industry are more intriguing. When ONGC was selling the gas at the rate of  1.83 dollar per unit the government allowed Reliance Industry to sell gas at the rate of 2.34 dollar per unit in 2094. In 2007 the government further increased  the price to 4.2 dollar per unit. Noting this the CAG submitted that "it was the highest price received by anyone for natural gas anywhere. Whereas the cost was about 1.43 dollar per unit. "Common man's calculations state that gains are 4.2-1.83=2.37 dollar per unit multipled by quantity produced amounts to huge amount  at the cost of exploitation of people and country's natural resources. In the meantime the Reliance Industry has managed to sell its 30% share to British Petroleum for7.2  billion dollars in 2011 abd its approval was given by none other than the committee headed by PM. And now the Reliance Industry has approached the government to increase the price to 14.2 dollar per unit because the production has declined to 31mmscmd from 61 mmscmd, when it was supposed to go up to 80mmscmd and eevery time the company has given excuse that due to the lower output it is incurring loss .However according to Morgan Stanley Reliance Industry IRR is 33% in KG Basin operation which is the highest in the world for any company and it also constitutes one third of its total profit.
Now the nation has lost Rs.125000 crore revenue. And in whole story of manipulation the government was supporting the the Reliance Industry step by step as if it has become shameless and so arrogant that it is ready to go to any extent to help a private firm. Nothing in this world is free of cost and nothing the politicians do without any hidden motive of personal gain . Therefore some people likeCPM MP Gurudas Gupta and former Power Secrectary Mr.E.A.S.Sharma have moved to Supreme Court against Reliance Industry and Veerappa Moily accusing them of manipulating gas price hike to increase profit .Finding that even there is delay in getting judgment early , Mr.T.S.R.Subramaniam, Former navy chief R.H.Tahiliai and lawyer Kamini Jaiswal went to Delhi CM ,who promptly asked Anti Corruption Bureau to file an FIR against Chairman of the Reliance Industry , Petroleum Minister and others. The first reaction of the Reliance Industry was very reserved but Mukesh Ambani knows that he is heading towards bad ground where there is no Manmohan Singh and his Government to save him and if Kejriwal remains commited to the basic principle of gaining popularity and supprt of people in the election then it may prove to be very costly affair for Ambani.  The statement of Virappa Moily that gas prices are going to increase from April 2014 is again an indication of how much pressure Ambani can excert  on the government.  Here it is interesting to see that both BJP and Congress  have united voice on this issue and supporting directly and discretly to Ambani who happens to be the largest financer for election.Now the common man waits for Supreme Court judgmentand outcome of FIR lodged by Kejriwal government.

Losses of the national economy during Congress rule.

People of the nation must understand the reality of Congress' rule and the white lies presented by PM Manmohan Singh who said that inflation  may be one of the reasons for the defeat of Congress party in the recent election.In fact it not only inflation but overall performance of the economy during the UPA Rule has been demoralizing and it has discredited the government.The government has suffered from policy paralysis as a result there has been delay in the implementation of many policy decisions taken by the government at one occasion and then reversed at some other occasions. The situation turned out to be so perturbing that India was on the verge of facing a situation of 1990 like economic crisis.  No doubt in the second term of UPA rule the government failed to correct many policy related dichotomies that crippled the economy. Many people may remember that in beginnin of  twenty first century, all economic parameters were performing well and supporting each other. Like when agriculture sector was going down then private investment was encouraged to enhance its potential. In these years both manufacturing sector and construction sector were doing well.  During 2002-2006, the rate of interest offered by most of the commercial banks was in the range of 7% to 8.5%.This created large scale manufacturing and construction activities leading to growth of employment. 

However all of the sudden there was a policy change in the name of controlling inflation,when China was promoting construction sector with massive investment , India started withdrawing policy support to this sector and , commercial banks without any concrete reason started raising the rate of interest. Since investment had already taken place, ie supply has been created, there was curb on demand and this sector has to face the worst phase of its growth. The consumers who have taken loans on floating rate were the worst sufferers. And there was no Central Banking system to see into the matter. 

The Congress Party perhaps forgot that it was the middle class who bought it to the power and ironically the party was devastating this class by its pro rich policies . It is this erosion of faith of middle class  that led to debacle in the election of Delhi. 

Looking at other parameters like Fiscal Deficit which stands at Rs.5.42 lac crores ie 5.69% of GDP in 2012-13, the government  has also failed to correct macro structural deficiencies, such as non discretionary subsidy on LPG and petrolium products(Rs.65000 crores) fertilizers(Rs.65971.5 crores.). Both these subsidies ,along with food subsidy (Rs.90000crores) are creating huge burden on state exchequer. It also reduced finance available for capital investment (investment supporting growth).As a result performance of the economy during the Congress Rule started coming down and down. Furtheremore government is trying to control fiscal deficit through decrease in the Plan Expenditure on rural development, public health expenditure and education sector. The below graphic presentation will support this fact . Since exports were not rising at the expected rate and population was creating demand , the economy wss forced to depend on import.A common man calculations reveals that per year India is importing oil and other petroleum products of Rs 7.26 lac crore which means that during a five year plan India will have to spend about RS.38 lac crore on only this item. Without going into the great details , our trade deficit is widening every year. The economy further performed badly due to delay in reforms and poor growth of the infrastructure sector. Although very fancied MANREGA programm created employment but rampant corruption in it failed to bring any visible change on employment front. In second phase of UPA rule performance of economy on employment front has even gone from bad to worse. 

  Every month, government does something or other to increase inflation such as -increasing the prices of petroleum products on the regular basis. During UPA rule petrrolium prices have increased by 120% ie from Rs.34.23 to Rs.73.68. This situation is further complicated by fall in the value of Indian rupee in the terms of international currencies especially in respect of US dollar.  As regards to Trade Deficit performance of the economy is even more worrying becsuse it has gone up to about 88billion US dollar in 2013-14.It seems that PM is actually misleading the nation by saying that the demand is rising due to rise in the income of the people.  This cannot be an explanation for double degit food inflation. Erossion of value of rupee itself is a serious matter.It is a common economic practice that when the number of consumers increases then the demand will increase too.  The responsibility of the government is to increase the supply,  which is not happening.  

Indian economy is trapped under a phenomenon "Stagflation" in which prices keep on rising but supply of goods and services do not respond to normal economic practice ie. Supply increases with increase in the prices. Policy makers will have to take certain hard decisions to correct this situation.When similar problem prevailed in US, then President Reagan has introduced several policy decidions contrary to Keynesian economics and removed supply side bottelnecks which helped in  recovery.