Karnataka Election :A Litmus Test Of Modi

In 2014,Modi came to power riding high on the anti incumbency wave of 10 years of the Congress rule.There were  many scams and corruption cases durin the Congress rule and it provides a readymade ground for BJP to highlight failure of the government .
The massive mandate for BJP in the election of 2014 was primarily due to people getting fade with the Congress incompetence to handle corruption and black money issues .But now after 4 years of BJP rule people are confused as to why to vote for BJP in 2019 election.
There was election in the Gujrat in which BJP was somehow able to save its face and  formed the government but this election has clearly shown  that Modi magic is on downslide.This fact is further  strengthened by the fact that when opposition forms a strategic  alliance considering all political elements  then,it will be difficult for the BJP to repeat its performance of 2014.United opposition is a serious threat  to BJP  government and if in Karnataka the same thing could have been done then BJP dream to open gates in the South could have easily shattered .
Everything will depend on the how does JDS performs in the election as this party will be the king maker in Karnataka. On Polling day CM Siddaramaiha reacted very cryptically .
We are very-very confident that Congress party will come back to power with a complete majority,” CM Siddaramaiah said in Mysuru's Varuna. On being asked about Yeddyurappa's statement that he will be sworn-in as the new CM, Siddaramaiah said Yeddyurappa is "mentally disturbed". 

Demonetisation and Its After Effects

The issue of Demonetisation is very much relevant  to the residents of India because in the  post independent  India  it is one of  the  most talked step by  the  Government. Demonetisation  was partial in India  as the government  only demonetised Rs.1000 and 500 currency  notes.People  were give a stipulated  time frame  for  deposit  of  their currency  notes in the  banks and the whole  nation was in line leaving behind their regular  work.

Now after  5 months of post Demonetisation  period  the time has come to analyse its effects  on  Indian Economy. 
Demonetisation  is a blunder  by the present  government  as it was introduced  without  proper  planning  .Its objectives  were neither  finalised nor well defined. 
As per latest  analysis  of  the RBI  and other financial  institutions  ,the government  has  huge negative  Opportunity  Cost of Demonetisation and as a resident  of  the  nation we too have  to  incurre  a very big cost in the form of Physical  Cost of waiting  for  our own assets  to be converted  into  liquidity. 
In fact, the post Demonetisation  period  has resulted  into  slowing  down of the economy  by 2%of GDP. It is a very modest  data because   actual  damage  to  the  economy  will be much bigger in the long run.

Furthermore,  accelerated  loss in the manufacturing  , real estate ,and construction  sectors  is very much frightening  as these sectors  create  jobs for the people. 
As if this was less the government  has  further  dealt  another  blow with the  introduction  of  GST with such a high rate slabs.Although  GST  in itself  is  not  a  bad step but question  arises was its timing  correct?
In short future  of  the  Indian  Economy  for the coming  two years seems to be bad bad as growth parameters  are  disheartening. 


Indian  Economy  consists  of  two sectors Organized  and unorganised  and it was unorganised  sector  consisting  of  medium  and small  businesses  that was worst  hit.Lacs of the people  lost their jobs in the initial  stages  as most of the  activities  of  this sector  require lots of cash and most of these industries  were forced to cut down their production  and employment. Particularly  labour force  from rural  areas  were rendered  unemployed  and  left for their  respective  places.
Later on when Demand fell in the economy  due to lack  of  income  generated  by  the  unorganised  sector , it has affected  other sectors  and as a  chain reaction  in the economy  there was  a fall in the GDP in the first quarter of the Financial  year. 
 Now with the publication of  RBI report on Demonetisation   that 99%currency  is back to the  banks during  the  period of deposits, the story seems to be more complicated. Either  there were little  amount of Illegal  currency  in the economy or the illegal  currency  were deposited  as legal  currency  in the banks.
The RBI annual report said that “subject to future corrections based on verification process when completed,” the estimated value of the banned notes it “received” was Rs 15.28 trillion. This compares with the Rs 15.44 trillion of the invalidated notes that were in circulation as of 8 November, according to data provided by minister of state for finance Arjun Meghwal to Parliament on 21 January.
It seems to be a matter  of  great concerns  as if second part is true  then our banking  system  needs complete  overhauling. It is one of the  BIGGEST  SCAM  of modern century  in which a country  flooded  with illegal  currency  failed to dictate  it.According to  estimates provided by the Government  on the illegal  currency  and black money, these are about Rs.400000 crores and if all this money was deposited  in  banks,now the banking sector  will be under great pressure  to pay interest  on these deposits. Earlier  this  money  was not in the banking  system  and was laying in the people  lockers or in their custody and was not creating  any problem  for the banking sector. 
Now the second part "What about unearthing  Black Money "As per the  Estimates  of World  Bank and other International  Financial  Institutions  our black money  economy  is  nearly  three times of GDP  at current  prices.
Where has that money gone if it was not deposited. 
Therefore  Demonetisation  was an unthoughtful act full of dichotomy and its dynamics  are beyond  the  perception  of  common  man.
The cost of printing  new currency  notes is nearly  two times more than its actual  gains to the  RBI. 
And at a time when92% Fiscal  Deficit has already  been  created in just 5 months of the current  Financial  Year, coming time will face stiff  inflation. Let us see what the government  can do because  it has to face election  in 2019 and by any means next two Budgets  will be Populist  Budget.. 

Beginning of the End of the Congress

Today's election  results  for 5 State Assemblies are great indications  of downfall  of a  great party as since  2014 Parliamentary  election  its miseries are increasing. At the  same  time,  the trends which most probably  will  be  converted  into  the  results,  are also an indicator  of what is called  social  engineering  and election  management. With no sign of political  maturity  ,the Congress  Party  is repeating  its last election  mistakes. Its loyalty  towards Gandhi family  has become  a  double  edged  sword.The more  it depends  and defends its allegiance  to the family  the more are its defeats  and disintegration. 

Let me be very clear  that  for centuries  the same Gandhi  family was able  to  provide  great leadership  and political  wisdom  to the  Party but since  the death of Indira  Gandhi, no matter  what  ever  has been  done  and whosoever  may ruled  the Party ,its actual  strength  started  to  decline. For a brief  period  of  1984 to 1990 it seemed  that Rajeev Gandhi  is able  to  get  support  and  victory  in the  election  but very soon his own weaknesses  resulted  into  a  great defeat  of the party.
After him although Sonia Gandhi  was able to bring the  Congress  Party  into the  power but at the cost of its second  generation  leadership. Unfortunately  Gandhi  family  and the  Congress  Party  itself  has a habit  of  keeping party under its belt and doesn't  allow  new leaders to grow  or the old leaders to dominate. It is often  said that for the SUNRISE OF THE CONGRESS  PARTY  SON RISE  SHOULD BE ABANDONED. 
But who listens. What can be worse  that in this election  the Congress  Party  has been  thrown  out  and is replaced  by  BJP and  the Left  Parties. In the Eastern  State like  Assam the top leadership  of the  Congress  Party  didn't  listen  to its State leadership. As a result  there was defection in the party .Secondly  Rahul Gandhi  mismanaged Assam election. It reflects  his political  immaturity  and aloofness  towards local issues. At the same  time  BJP  was able  to capitalise  local issues. 

In Tamil Nadu it allies DMK is the same  party which  was always  anti Congress. It didn't  give  good taste  to the voters in TN.
Today's  election  results  shows many new trends of Indian politics. Despite violence  and corruption  Indian  voters  voted in the favour  of TMC  in the West Bengal. Historically  West Bengal  has been  a State  of  Left Parties  and had been  ruled by the Left Ideology. Surprisingly  in the last Assembly  election  TMC challenged  dominance  of  the  Left and came  in the power.Now despite  so many issues  against  TMC it has been  able  to  get  majority  in the West Bengal. It is because  with  the  same instruments  Left is getting  defeats  ie violence  and power during the election. 

As regards  to  Tamil Nadu is concerned  it is remarkable  election  engineering  of Jay Lalita that led to this victory. It also  offers  a  simple  explanation  that Indian  voters can still  be  managed  by  the  money  and free gifts.Jay Lalita  way was made easy with fractional  divisions  in the  DMK.

Paris Attack: An Inhuman and Barbaric Act

France  will never  forget  Black Friday  on 13th  of  November  2015 when there were multiple barbaric  and dastardly  terrorist  attacks  at different  places  in Paris killing innocent people.  France has to declare a state of emergency and more than 15000 army personnel were deployed to counter these attacks.People  are still  in a  shock  as how within  an hour  the whole  thing  has changed  as a friendly  football  match between France  and Germany  ended in a stamped  causing many people  injured  and a few dead and a theater performance ended into cry and shouting.After the first  blast there were five more  attacks  in the different  parts  of  Paris resulting  into death  of 127 people  and injuring  more than 350 people. 

Without  any delay  ISIS has taken  the  responsibility  and announcing  that this attack is the revenge  for French attack on  Syria and threatened  to carry more attacks  if France  doesn't  stop its bombing  on Syrian territory.And the timing  of  these attacks is more important  as Indian  PM is on his visit to England  and Iranian  President  was to start his tour of Europe. The world leaders should  take this attack as another war and they must decide a strategy  for terrorism. USA and its allies  now can't  continue  with the concept  of  good terrorism  and bad terrorism. And UNO should  not  limit its action only by condemning  such barbaric  attacks but will have to  take  decisive  action rather its image  will be dented  badly.Interference  in Syrian  affairs without any sanction  from either  UNO or the World community  by USA and its allies  may be cited as one reason  for the present attacks in France  but its root causes are much deeper  than  we could see them.

We are facing an act of war organized by an army of terrorist jihadists that had already organized and planned attacks in the past," French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said Saturday evening. "Five attacks have been thwarted since this summer. But we have always said that there is no such thing as zero risk. We have always said that France could face new terrorist attacks." The whole world stand united with France in tgis hour of tragedy  and grief.Indian PM condemned  this barbaric  attacks  on the innocent  people. Similarly  Henry  Clinton said  "Our prayers are with the people of France tonight, but that is not enough," she said. "We need to have a resolve that will bring the world together to root out the kind of radical jihadist ideology that motivates organizations like ISIS, a barbaric, ruthless, violent jihadist terrorist group."

Recently  it has been  observed  that  Europe  has become  a  centre  of  major  terrorist  activities  and France  has been  targeted  in the worst ways.Ever since  the  Iraq war in 1990's and NATO nations participation  in  that war ,Europe  has become  a targeted  place  for terrorist  attacks. With growing fundamentalism in the Middle  East countries and realisation  that Western countries  are not only eroding  their religious  and cultural  identities  but also  squeezing  their national wealth ,there has been  strong resentment  among the  people  against the western  world and its policies.

Therefore  the plot of the  present  day  attacks  in the  different  parts of the  Europe  are a reaction to  the  historical  mistakes  committed  by USA  and its allies since  the  second  World War. Unnecessary  interference  in the cultural  and religious  beliefs  for the  petty  economic  gains by USA  and  its allies have  created  great resentment  among the  people  in Muslim  world. And now European  people  are paying  for  the  mistakes  committed  by  their leaders in the  past.

People  must note that Sadam Hussain rule in Iraq was a  balancing  force in the Middle  East  and with its destruction  that balancing  force is now missing  as a result  there is a vacuum  which is allowing  the growth  of terrorism  in this region.  ISIS is one of them.Its ideology  is clear :establishment of A Bigger Muslim World.And the main reason behind the growth  of  ISIS  in  this region  is conflict  between  Shia and Sunni dominance. It the  reason  why  they want to dethrone  Asad government  in Syria and Iraq who are Shia .Therefore  whenever there is any opposition  and whosoever  is against  this  ideology  there is strong reaction by ISIS in the form of terrorist  attacks. Unfortunately  France  has to bear it again  and  again  in  recent  times. 

Firstly  when a magazine  office Charlie Hebdo was attacked  by  the  fundamentalists and its editor was killed. After  that  there was another bombing  attack in France  killing  people. These incidents  were indications  of  what is coming  in the future. More attacks  and more destruction. Now question  arises why only France? It is because  in this county there has been  growing  fundamentalism  among youths and there is  a strong under current in French society  which is encouraging  youths to join terrorist  groups.
Furthermore  with the  formation  of  the  European  Union  and single  visa system  it has become  very convenient  for  terrorist  to move from  one country  to another  and create its sleeper cells across  the  boarder.

As a result  Europe  has become  a heaven  for such organisations  to get support  and money  from the  youths. There has been  large scale  recruitment  in ISIS  from these countries  and it has made France  a soft target for attacks. 
The world must and should  criticise  this inhuman  attack but at the  same  time  it has to  be  ready  for  the  more such attacks as ISIS  leadership  has given  clear cut indication  of  it.And such terrorist  organisations  have a simple  ideology  either you finish them or they will  finish you.Now it is upto the World community  to decide  how to handle  this issue  of terrorism  as for the first  time  USA  and  its allies  are facing  this challenge. 
ISIS  is  under tremendous  pressure  due Russian  support  to Asad government  and in the recent  attacks  by Russian  planes it has lost some of its strategic  towns.Similarly  offensive  carried  out  by  USA  and its allies  have resulted  into the loss of Mosul and other towns disturbing  free movements  of ISIS  fighters. Therefore  ISIS  has  to take some dashing  acts of attacks  outside  the  Middle  East  region  to show  its strength. Since  it has  good number  of  supporters  in France these attacks  were easier  to  carry out there.According  to French authorities  7 out of 8 killed terrorists  are French nationals showing how much deep rooted are these groups on French  soil.
And growing  influence  of  ISIS  in Europe  can easily  be  seen  when there is a support  system  of suppliers  of  weapons  and other logistics. Furthermore  ISIS  has  also  proved  that  it can fight both offensively  and defensively  in and outside  the  Middle  East. Therefore  the time  has come  when the whole  world  has to take  united stand in pointing out who are the supporters  of  terrorism  and has to deal sternly  with them. Secondly  financial  support  of ISIS  has to be  broken  down  so that arms  purchases by it are controlled. Every  one knows  that there are many oil firms from Turkey  buying oil from ISIS  and selling  it  in the market and in return  they are getting  both money  and arms.Such nexus  needs to be  broken. 

Victory of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar

The result of the most awaited election  in India is out and it has shaken faith of many political  pandits but it has at the same  time  proved a fact that India is not a politically  immature contry rather during the decades of 21st  century the people  have become  increasingly  politically  aware and mature.This election has also  taught many lessons to the nation and to many political parties especially  to BJP and Congress. To the BJP it has given a severe  jolt and dented the image  of PM Modi as Vikash Purus (man of development ). The  outcome  of  the  election  has also proved that  in India  no political  party  can take people  for granted  and allure or misguide them on frivolous  issues  of religion  and communalism. And to the Congress Party this election has made it clear that now it has to be ready to play second fiddle and to be a partner in the coallition rather to be the leader.

Let go back to historical facts that Bihar has been  a  land of reforms movements and political  experiments of many great leaders like Mahatma Gandhi and Jai Prakash Narayan and therefore  if the BJP has thought that it can lead the people  on religious  lines then it can be  said  that  its top leaderships  has no understanding  of  political fibre  of Bihar.Since independence Bihar has been  a centre  of  major political  movements and only during  80's of the last century  it experienced a political  downfall or perversion  when a group of spineless  leaders downgraded it in the eyes of nation.

Let us now focus  on  the  recent  election  and its outcomes. When Lalu Prasad Yadav decided  to  form an alliance  with  the JDU and the Congress  Party then as per Political  Airthematics  Mahagathbandhan  has gained a distinctive  edge over its rival  BJP  led NDA alliance. It is because  with around 18.7%Yadav voters combined with OBC and Muslim votes ;Mahagathbandhan has little  chances  of  debacles thanthe NDA  which is largely  dependent  on  the  upper cast and urba voters.

Secondly  with the passage  of  time youth has become  dischanted with illusions created by Modi.Therefore  NDA was fighting a  lost battle  from day one.As a result BJP  leaders devided to communalise the election which fortunately  did not materialised  in Bihar.Now both the strong weapons failing flat BJP has tasted  a worst type of defeat that has not only disheartened  its cader but also gave  chances  to those leaders who have  been  suffering  due to Modi cult in the  party.As a result voice of desent and criticisms  are growing  up in the party.

Now question  is who is to be blamed? Firstly Amit Shah with his arrogance  and out of people  touch.He is being blamed for alleiniating  veteran  BJP leaders in the state  and banking on those leaders who have  no political  ground in Bihar. More over  a decision  to  give more importance  to Manjhi and his party has disturbed  caste equations and seat distribution among the NDA allies and resulted into chaos  than  the actual political outcome in the election. 

Then the issue  of reservation  raised by Mohan Bhagwat the leader of RSS at this juncture  was a fatal  mistake  and combined  with  communal incidents  of Atari in Haryana and Dadari  in UP  have  done enough damage  to  the  party.It actually left Muslim voters no other choice  than  to  stand with  Mahagathbandhan. 
Finally both Lalu and Nitish Kumar were fighting the election  of their survival  and they were crafty enough to seal all the possible  loop holes in their planning. 

Downfall of AAP

The high profile National Executive meeting of AAP at Kapasheda in New Delhi is an eye opener for all those who believed this party to provide an alternative politics. From the very beginning it has been alleged that AAP is a group of people who have no faith in the political system and their behavior is not different from an anarchist. And this rumor got a certificate after today's meeting in which no rules were followed and the democratic principles were butchered. The voice of descent were crushed with mussel power and opposition was made silent with the coarsive use of henchmen. Now question arises why are principles and policies sacrificed. If for the power then every leader of AAP should be ashamed as they have not only cheated people who have supported them but also for deceiving the nation in the name of cleansing the political system. 

Mr.Kejriwal should be doubly ashamed as he is the main actor in the whole drama.Very cleverly he played his pawns in the game and whenever he was getting exposed then he escaped from the scene. 
Mr Yogender Yadav and Mr.Prashant Bhushan are worried people not because they need pwer but they want that AAP shouldn't be finished in the same manner in which Assan Gan Sangram Parishad and the Janata Party have been finished for the power struggle. It is quite natural that POWER CORRUPTS A MAN BUT ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS HIM ABSOLUTELY. The misery of leaders surrounding Kejriwal are power hungry people and they are misguiding him but this is not the only truth. Mr.Kejriwal himself became arrogant and non listener.He is afraid of opposition and therefore every voice of disagreement is being crushed. 

Let us remember the Anti Corruption Movement of Anna Hazare and at that stage Kejriwal arrives with a great wisdom and vision. He became close to Anna and as soon as he relised  that he position is strong and unchallenged then he dominated the whole movement and in fact derailed the movement from its main motive. Very cleverly he used his new gained popularity to form a new Political Party to provide alternative politics. And surprisingly the party won good number of seats in the Delhi Assembly election. But moral downfall of AAP started as soon as the government was formed with the help of Congress. Since AAP fought election on the groud of disclosure of corruption charges against the Congress , it was a beginning of the Politics of Compromise. 
Great victory of BJP in 2014 Parliamentary election frightened AAP about its own future and when BJP was rejoicing its victory , Kejriwal prepared a well drafted election strategy and got thumping victory. Now the second downfall of the party started from here.There was a group of people who have recently joined AAP and wanted to consolidate their position within the party and they can succeed only when some  space  is created.And today's meeting gave them an opportunity to get a few loyal leaders out of the party.

The Beginning Of A Vertical Split In AAP

After the great victory of AAP in Delhi election, we all were once again mesmerizedto see that how mature is Indian voter.This victory has paved the way for a party which is trying to present itself as an alternative politics to the  people India. Now the same party is feeling the actual waves of politics that is preference for sychophancy, groupism , favoritism and hunger for the power.In other words the great drama of Indian Politics began when a group of AAP leaders decided to remove Yogender Yadav and Prashat Bhushan from the Political Affairs Committee (PAC) . And the reasons given are so frivolous that even a lay man can't believe that both these leaders are conspiring against Arvind Kejriwal.It is true that POWER CORRUPTS A MAN AND ABSOLUTE POWER CRRUPTS HIM ABSOLUTELY.AAP is now suffering from political inviberation and its leaders have become whimsical. 

 It all started happening when after the debacle of Lok Sabha election in the last May, when there was a demand for one man one post in the party and it frightened some leaders of AAP that it may create a situation in which there will be a power struggle within the party and might reduce their importance in the party . As a result these leaders started planting stories about Yogender Yadav and Prashant Bhushan.There were sting operation and selective leakage of mails and letters to start war of words and for this a few selected leaders were given charge to create hostile environment for these two leaders in the party.

Finally a meeting was called to expel these leaders from PAC and reasons given that these two leaders will be given some other responsibilities but the party failed to make announcement about these responsibilities. And behind this move there were some leaders playing political game from behind the curtain. It is an open truth that Kejriwal himself wanted complete control over the party and therefore the voices of descent should have to be stopped. The person who started his political career as as a crusader of transparency in the political and social life; is now victim of ego and political vendetta .All those who reminded him of ideals of the party are now clubbed as anti party and are humiliated by a coterie of leaders who have gained nearness to Kejriwal and who do not want to loose their position. 

It has been a story about Kejriwal that he had used people for his own ends like Anna .And then there is a long listof leaders. But it has not gone without opposition .Leaders like Binni, Sazia and Dhir who have tried to oppose  high handedness of Kejriwal were forced to leave the party.Mr Yadav and Bhushan are just new addition to the list of leaders to have dare to oppose Kejriwal and are facing the music. It is a fact that every thing is not well in AAP as during the last assembly election , the party has made many compromises and used many things that were opposed to the party principles. It were these issues which were highlighted by these two leaders. 
Now expulsion of Yogender Yadav and Prashant Bhushan from PAC has created ripples in the party as the resolution wad passed by 12 to 8 votes and one of the suppoerter of the resolution , Mayank Gandhi has now opposing the method and manner of the decision. Even State Units of AAP are opposing this decision. And in the long run such acts of party leaders will damage the image of the party.