After Karnataka election,opposition has got a new lease of life as they realised that their strenth lies in the united opposition and not in divided one.Why? Because what had happened during the by elections in UP,Bihar and Rajsthan and in some others States ,the same can be repeated in the General election also.
There are valid reasons for this belief also.If BSP,SP and Congress Party become united in UP then the vote percentage of the 3 parties will be around 57%.And it will bring down BJP seats in the General election to nearly 20.
If same thing is done in Bihar where again these 3 parties along with RJD decide to fight General election in 2019 then vote percentage is more than 40% (18.7+16.9+6.7)and in this situation both BJP and JDU will not be able to win even 20 seats.
Similarly in Gujarat and Rajsthan the position of BJP is not good as united opposition will create serious problems .Recently we have seen what had happened in Gujarat when the Congress fought election by forming a Grand Alliance .
And Rajsthan government is facing anti incumbency factor and united opposition will create great impact on election results and loss of 50%seats are the most probable outcome.
Only these States results will decide future of next government of BJP .Because these 4 States have 80+40+25+25=170 seats.Of which 140 seats are minimum requirement for forming government at the centre.And if include seats from MP and Chhattisgarh(29+11=40),where BJP is facing serious challenges and it will not be possible to repeat 2014 performance .As a result if BJP is not able to win 170 seats out of 210 seats then how can it even imagine to form a government
In the newly elected States under the rule of BJP may give some respite but caste conflicts created by BJP over enthusiastic workers will again increase vote percentage of the opposition.
With the loss of Telgu Desam and Shiv Sena the number of seats will decrease in these States.
So dream of repeating BJP rule becomes a distance dream.
It looks very difficult for the BJP to do something extra ordinary in West Bengal,Orissa ,Andhra Pradesh and some other South Indian .And in this situation Amit Shah had said that he is making plan for 50 years of BJP rule in India. What are the base of his imagination he can better explain but ground realities are something else.
Most enthusiastic BJP supports may have to digest that BJP doesn't have history of repeating its rule at centre.
In the last election 3 groups voted for the BJP in large numbers Youth,Peasants and Middle class. But these classes are the worst suffering classes in the last 4 years of Modi rule and now the water is flowing over head.Youths are highly frustrated due to lack of job opportunities and lofty statements of Modi have been exposed. Farmers are the second worse suffering class who feel cheated by the BJP. No plans to improve their conditions .What had happened to the promise of doubling their income? The policy of Demonetisation and GST have created enough troubles for the business community which is a traditional vote bank of BJP.
And middle class as usually always paying enough taxes but receiving nothing.Rising prices of petroleum products are further hitting them hard. Similarly in the last election OBC and Muslims have also voted for BJP along with its traditional vote bank .It was the reason why the party was able to win 73 seats in UP.But now equations are changing. The traditional vote bank of Adivasi in Chhattisgarh has shifted from it and with united opposition again Dalit and OBC votes will shift from BJP .Its failure to do something on black money issue and continuing frauds in baking sector has diminished its image as corruption free party.Raffel deal has created big question mark.So there are enough materials for the opposition .
Now what will be new plank of BJP for 2019 election?And how can this party repeat its performance of 2014 only God knows.
Now the situation on the side of the opposition is also not simple as there are caste equations and created social engineering. Both SP and BSP have there traditional vote bank and they will not like any shift in the vote bank.In the last election BJP had won majority of reserved seats in UPand created big problems for both SP and BSP .
Similarly the Congress Party will have to develop compromising attitude and SP experience in the last UP with the Congress was not good.Congress party should have to come out of its past euphoria .
The Grand Opposition Alliance should include more members from both South and North India. In recent times Muslims community is feeling insecure due to regular conflicts. Therefore this vote should not be allowed to divide .An alliance of Muslims,OBC,SC and ST could easily give more than 300 seats in the next election.
Now the Biggest problem who will lead the Grand Opposition Alliance The Congress Party claims and regional aspirations will pose a great problem. Matured political thinking can solve this issue.
There are valid reasons for this belief also.If BSP,SP and Congress Party become united in UP then the vote percentage of the 3 parties will be around 57%.And it will bring down BJP seats in the General election to nearly 20.
If same thing is done in Bihar where again these 3 parties along with RJD decide to fight General election in 2019 then vote percentage is more than 40% (18.7+16.9+6.7)and in this situation both BJP and JDU will not be able to win even 20 seats.
Similarly in Gujarat and Rajsthan the position of BJP is not good as united opposition will create serious problems .Recently we have seen what had happened in Gujarat when the Congress fought election by forming a Grand Alliance .
And Rajsthan government is facing anti incumbency factor and united opposition will create great impact on election results and loss of 50%seats are the most probable outcome.
Only these States results will decide future of next government of BJP .Because these 4 States have 80+40+25+25=170 seats.Of which 140 seats are minimum requirement for forming government at the centre.And if include seats from MP and Chhattisgarh(29+11=40),where BJP is facing serious challenges and it will not be possible to repeat 2014 performance .As a result if BJP is not able to win 170 seats out of 210 seats then how can it even imagine to form a government
In the newly elected States under the rule of BJP may give some respite but caste conflicts created by BJP over enthusiastic workers will again increase vote percentage of the opposition.
With the loss of Telgu Desam and Shiv Sena the number of seats will decrease in these States.
So dream of repeating BJP rule becomes a distance dream.
It looks very difficult for the BJP to do something extra ordinary in West Bengal,Orissa ,Andhra Pradesh and some other South Indian .And in this situation Amit Shah had said that he is making plan for 50 years of BJP rule in India. What are the base of his imagination he can better explain but ground realities are something else.
Most enthusiastic BJP supports may have to digest that BJP doesn't have history of repeating its rule at centre.
In the last election 3 groups voted for the BJP in large numbers Youth,Peasants and Middle class. But these classes are the worst suffering classes in the last 4 years of Modi rule and now the water is flowing over head.Youths are highly frustrated due to lack of job opportunities and lofty statements of Modi have been exposed. Farmers are the second worse suffering class who feel cheated by the BJP. No plans to improve their conditions .What had happened to the promise of doubling their income? The policy of Demonetisation and GST have created enough troubles for the business community which is a traditional vote bank of BJP.
And middle class as usually always paying enough taxes but receiving nothing.Rising prices of petroleum products are further hitting them hard. Similarly in the last election OBC and Muslims have also voted for BJP along with its traditional vote bank .It was the reason why the party was able to win 73 seats in UP.But now equations are changing. The traditional vote bank of Adivasi in Chhattisgarh has shifted from it and with united opposition again Dalit and OBC votes will shift from BJP .Its failure to do something on black money issue and continuing frauds in baking sector has diminished its image as corruption free party.Raffel deal has created big question mark.So there are enough materials for the opposition .
Now what will be new plank of BJP for 2019 election?And how can this party repeat its performance of 2014 only God knows.
Now the situation on the side of the opposition is also not simple as there are caste equations and created social engineering. Both SP and BSP have there traditional vote bank and they will not like any shift in the vote bank.In the last election BJP had won majority of reserved seats in UPand created big problems for both SP and BSP .
Similarly the Congress Party will have to develop compromising attitude and SP experience in the last UP with the Congress was not good.Congress party should have to come out of its past euphoria .
The Grand Opposition Alliance should include more members from both South and North India. In recent times Muslims community is feeling insecure due to regular conflicts. Therefore this vote should not be allowed to divide .An alliance of Muslims,OBC,SC and ST could easily give more than 300 seats in the next election.
Now the Biggest problem who will lead the Grand Opposition Alliance The Congress Party claims and regional aspirations will pose a great problem. Matured political thinking can solve this issue.
No comments:
Post a Comment