WHERE DO WE STAND TODAY: THE SADDEST DAY OF INDIAN POLITICAL HISTORY

Wishing all you a very happy Saturday. The day that will be remembered for the outcome of floor test in Karnataka Assembly which will decide future of democratic accountability of a political party BJP that came with a promise of transparency and accountability.
But within 4 years of Modi rule we all are in tears to see the plight of everyone in the country.Many of you might not have seen Emergency of 1975 but you can easily  compare the present situation  with that period. Most of the Media houses have either seem to have sold themselves to a party  in government or have made some unethical  compromises with that party.
If 4  supreme court judges are comming out openly to ask the people to save democracy and its institutions  then situation is surely alarming.
I still remember  how the ex Chief Justice  of India Mr Thakur had cried in a meeting in which PM was also present.It means tgat government interference in judiciary  has increased
In a country if opposition  of the government  makes you anti national     and you are asked to leave the country then  situation is very serious and certainly  demands  some bigger action.
Today the only hope comes from two sides Supreme Court and we the people of India. Hope we will wake up and fulfil our national responsibility.
In fact people of India need an emancipation from such a corrupt and rotten political system.Hope that political parties will realise  that it is high time and decide to work for the nation building  rather than being  a commodity  for sale in the political mandi. If is very difficult to  digest that people's representatives will change their political ideology  and will change the party for a briefcase .
The biggest question is that why do we select and  elect  such people as people  representatives who don't have any moral and ethical standards. In fact political  pollution  has started in 1952 during the First General Election when nearly 57%MP were from Landlords,Aristocratic and Capitalist backgrounds  and those who fought for the national freedom were ignored.It was the biggest mistake that tge Congress Party has made purposefully .
The political degeneration continued  during 1960's and 1970's with both capturing and introduction of criminals in election process  but by the end of 1977 there was some hope due to emergence of Jay Prakash Narayan and formation of Janata Party.Unfortunately this experiment failed because  our political  representatives till then were so corrupt that they failed to live upto the expectations of the people.
After that re emergence of Indira Gandhi and her political experiments the political vaues have further  in India.There was a fresh lease of air in the form of Rajiv Gandhi but he failed to face corrupt political system.
1990 was a period of Political Alliance plotics and several leaders who never imagine  to be a national leader became Prime Minister of India like I.K.Gujral and Deve Gowda.We entered the 21st century with another phase of Alliance which continued for 13 years and then came Modi government .
By now it is clear that politics has traveled 70 years and unfortunately we don't have any big leader who ever thought of making the nation a big power.

The General Election of 2019:A big Challenge for BJP

After Karnataka election,opposition has got a new lease of life as they realised that their strenth lies in the united opposition  and not in divided one.Why? Because   what had happened during the by elections in UP,Bihar and Rajsthan and in some others States ,the same can be repeated in the General election also.
There are valid reasons for this belief also.If BSP,SP and Congress Party become united in UP then the vote percentage of the 3 parties will be around 57%.And it will bring down BJP seats in the General election to nearly 20.
If same thing is done in Bihar where again these 3 parties along with RJD decide to fight General election in 2019 then vote percentage is more than 40% (18.7+16.9+6.7)and in this situation both BJP and JDU will not be able to win even 20 seats.
Similarly in Gujarat and Rajsthan the position of BJP is not good as united opposition will create serious  problems .Recently we have seen what had happened in Gujarat when the Congress fought election by forming a Grand Alliance .
And Rajsthan government is facing anti incumbency factor and united opposition will create great impact on election results and loss of 50%seats are the most probable outcome.
Only these States results will decide future of next government of BJP .Because these 4 States have 80+40+25+25=170 seats.Of which 140 seats are minimum requirement for forming government at the centre.And if include seats from MP and Chhattisgarh(29+11=40),where BJP is facing serious challenges and it will not be possible to repeat 2014 performance .As a result if BJP is not able to win 170 seats out of 210 seats then how can it even imagine to form a government
In the newly elected States under the rule of BJP may give some respite but caste conflicts created by BJP over enthusiastic workers will again increase vote percentage of the opposition.
With the loss of Telgu Desam and Shiv Sena the number of seats will decrease in these States.
So dream of repeating BJP rule becomes a distance dream.
It looks very difficult for the BJP to do something extra ordinary in West Bengal,Orissa ,Andhra Pradesh and some other South Indian .And in this situation  Amit Shah had said that he is making plan for 50 years of BJP rule in India. What are the base of his imagination he can better explain but ground realities are something else.
Most enthusiastic BJP supports may have to digest that BJP doesn't have history of repeating its rule at centre.
In the last election 3 groups voted for the BJP in large numbers Youth,Peasants and Middle class. But these classes are the worst suffering classes in the last 4 years of Modi rule  and now the water is flowing over head.Youths are highly frustrated  due to lack of job opportunities  and lofty statements of Modi have been exposed. Farmers are the second worse  suffering class who feel cheated by the BJP. No plans to improve their conditions .What had happened to the promise of doubling their income? The policy of Demonetisation and GST have created enough troubles for the business community which is a traditional vote bank of BJP.
And middle class as usually always paying enough taxes but receiving nothing.Rising prices of petroleum products are further hitting them hard. Similarly in the last election OBC and Muslims have also voted for BJP along with its traditional vote bank .It was the reason why the party was able to win 73 seats in UP.But now  equations are changing. The traditional vote bank of Adivasi in Chhattisgarh has shifted from it and with united opposition again Dalit and OBC votes will shift from BJP .Its failure to do something on black money issue and continuing frauds in baking sector has diminished its image as corruption free party.Raffel deal has created big question mark.So there are enough materials for the opposition .
Now what will be new plank of BJP for 2019 election?And how can this party repeat its performance of 2014 only God knows.
Now the situation on the side of the opposition is also not simple as there are caste equations and created social engineering. Both SP and BSP have there traditional vote bank and they will not like any shift in the vote bank.In the last election BJP had won majority of reserved seats in UPand created big problems for both SP and BSP .
Similarly the Congress Party will have to develop compromising attitude and SP experience in the last UP with the Congress was not good.Congress party should have to come out of its past euphoria .
The Grand Opposition Alliance should include more members from both South and North India. In recent times Muslims community is feeling insecure due to regular conflicts. Therefore this vote should not be allowed to divide .An alliance of Muslims,OBC,SC and ST could easily give more than 300 seats in the next election.
Now the Biggest problem who will lead the Grand Opposition Alliance The Congress Party claims and regional aspirations will pose a great problem. Matured  political thinking can solve this issue. 

Outcome Of Karnataka Elections

Today election results of Karnataka were announced and trends indicate that people have rejected leadership of Rahul Gandhi.In one after another elections  the performance of the Congress Party  is turning from bad to worst.As a result the Congress has planned to make a post poll alliance with JDS as per news reports to form a government .In the light of these developments it is very important for the Congress Party to analyse  outcome  in Karnataka Elections in two perspectives.
Firstly the Congress Party has not only alienated itself from the common issues of the public but also failed to energise its workers to face onslaught  of BJP.
Secondly  why didn't the Congress Party go for an alliance with JDS which was offered to itand now after election results  the same is being done.Even if it is being done secretly to save its face ,this is not a good political strategy in the long run.The post poll analysis has to consider certain basic issues which are very important for political prudence for a national party.

There are diffent socio-Political basics of three main parties JDS,Congress  and BJP in Karnataka as well as at the national level.And Rahul Ganghi is unable to understand  harse realities  of Indian Politics .On many occasions  he seems to be an politically  indifferent leader taking politics as a part time activity and on many occasions  he looked like a big novice political leader who behaves plotically unaware of its implications with his own party leaders and leaders of Regional political  parties.
There is no doubt that the Congress Party  has been an elite dominated party since its beginning by not taking demands of poor farmers,industrial workers and various other  social groups during the Freedom Struggle and this character of the party continued during the 20th century. Its main political supporters  were SC,ST ,OBC and Muslims.In 1990 with the implementation of Mandal Commission a major vote bank of OBC moved towards RJD,JDU,SPand BSP in the North and many Regional Political parties in the other parts of the country.Further with Babari Masjid episode and the Congress Party reluctance to act strongly  against those who were responsible for destruction of Babari Masjid forced Muslims to moved towards the SP and RJD causing  irreparable damage to the Congress Party. Now the party influence was limited to the few States in the North and some States in the South.
And in the ensuing years there was a vacuum created on the political map of India. Although with the help of an alliance called UPA the Congress Party was able to rule the nation for next 10 years under the leadership of Manmohan Singh. But tgese 10 years were marked with corruption charges and scams.It prepared  a fertile  ground for BJP to highlight failure of the Congress Party and popularize its agenda of SAB KA SATH SAB KA VIKAS.
After 2014 election  there were no looking back for tge BJP  and in one after another elections,tge party has established  its presence in 21 States.In fact it has moved one step ahead towards CONGRESS MUKTA BHARAT.
Now for the Congress Party time has come to introspect its strength and weaknesses and rebild its political base.If not the year 2019 will prove to very fatal for it.The loss of Karnataka will have far reaching consequences for the Congress in the South as well as other  State election  during  2018.
So the Congress Party is facing a great challenge.
No doubt that Karnatka  Elections were dominated by religious divisions and corruption charges  against CM Sidaramaiha but divided opposition  failed to capitalise angre against Modi Government .And finally  Congress  Party  was very beautifully swayed  away from local  issues to national  issues as a result  people  Karnataka  Elections  were more known rhetoric suitable for general election than a State election .
There are big questions  over election strategy and panning by the Congress Party because
1. Its vote bank of Dalit (17%)&Muslims(7.8%) failed to materialise and its Ligayat card also failed miserably.
2.At ground level  party cader looked unorganized and at booth levelsparty workers were not well prepared and failed to bring voters to the booth level.
3.Congress failure to form an alliance with JDS and BSP.As a result opposition vote was divided  paving way for BJP victory.
4.Government of Sidaramaiha failed to highlight its achievements  and its further failure to counter Hindutwa experiments in the coastal areas.
5.Certain immature statements of Rahul Gandhi during the election rallies.

Now if this development of forming an alliance with JDS is true and happens to materialise then for the  time being,the Congress Party will be able to save its face in Karnataka. But BJP will not sit as a fence sitter after emerging as a single largest party and plan some political tricks .It seems that political drama in Karnataka may continue for some more time.

Karnataka Election :A Litmus Test Of Modi

In 2014,Modi came to power riding high on the anti incumbency wave of 10 years of the Congress rule.There were  many scams and corruption cases durin the Congress rule and it provides a readymade ground for BJP to highlight failure of the government .
The massive mandate for BJP in the election of 2014 was primarily due to people getting fade with the Congress incompetence to handle corruption and black money issues .But now after 4 years of BJP rule people are confused as to why to vote for BJP in 2019 election.
There was election in the Gujrat in which BJP was somehow able to save its face and  formed the government but this election has clearly shown  that Modi magic is on downslide.This fact is further  strengthened by the fact that when opposition forms a strategic  alliance considering all political elements  then,it will be difficult for the BJP to repeat its performance of 2014.United opposition is a serious threat  to BJP  government and if in Karnataka the same thing could have been done then BJP dream to open gates in the South could have easily shattered .
Everything will depend on the how does JDS performs in the election as this party will be the king maker in Karnataka. On Polling day CM Siddaramaiha reacted very cryptically .
We are very-very confident that Congress party will come back to power with a complete majority,” CM Siddaramaiah said in Mysuru's Varuna. On being asked about Yeddyurappa's statement that he will be sworn-in as the new CM, Siddaramaiah said Yeddyurappa is "mentally disturbed".