Elections 2019 :Emotional expression or Matured Decision

Election campaign is over and results are out for Indian democracy. With a massive victory BJP is over joyous and why not , 303 seats are even  beyond its expectations .At the same time this election has produced disastrous outcome for many Indian Political Parties especially for the Congress Party .With 52 seats in the Parliament and being wiped out in 18 States, Congress Party is passing through its worst time, because it's President has been defeated in Amethi which happened to be a strong hold for the party for decades .

 Similarly the Communist party in India is also under semblance or its darkest hour of politics. Similarly parties like Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party are also bewildered at the results .So question is logical how much Indian  voters are matured even after 60 years of democratic accountability. Why did I use the word Democratic Accountability because voters are equally  responsible for whatever had happened in India. Their political wisdom is tested once in every 5 years barring some exceptions .It has been seen that often people in India voted in favour of a political party  in such a way that opposition was virtually finished. It often gives rise to political dictatorship as it happened during the period 1971-75 and led to declaration of Emergency in 1975. Similarly in 1984 people have voted to Rajeev Gandhi with 415 seats and it burst like a balloon in just 5 years with so many scandals .We need to analyse why had it happened in the past and why are people  still  voting  in same pattern in 2019.It must be remembered that democracy needs opposition for its fair and fruitful  functioning. Therefore it may be concluded that in India voters are not still matured enough to vote for a party on issue based agenda .Both in South and North India, there is a practice of Hero worship and people are often misled by propaganda created by a party.
As if in the  election of 2019 voting has not taken place on major issues like condition of the economy, unemployment, rising Fiscal Deficit caused due to increased government expenditure, condition of core sector of the economy, rising NPA of the public sector  banks. Rather voting took place on many non  issue things like nationalism, Balakot strike, Hindu Muslim division and Raffel.
Neither opposition parties were able to present these issues in their election manifesto and during their compaign  they were easily trapped on agenda set by BJP. This is pathetic and deplorable state of affairs in politics. Time and again  in every phase of the election  BJP kept on shifting its goal post and opposition parties failed to fight election on national issues. Chowkidar chor hai actually boomeranged and dealt severe blow to the  Congress election strategy. Narratives for the election were set by BJP and other political parties couldn't pose any threat to it as it's agenda of Nationalism based on Hindutwa ideology has affected Indian youth like a hysteria. Before Phulwama and Surgical strike there was no big difference in popularity graph between  Modiand Rahul Gandhi but again opposition parties have made a blunder by questioning surgical strike. Both Modi and BJP knew it that political parties especially congress will commit a political suicide and the way its leaders have forwarded their arguments is deplorable. It shows political bankruptcy in congress. Neither it was able to win minorities nor Hindus and in confusion it kept on experimenting with the Raffel scandal.
As regards to  formation of  Grand Alliance of SP ,BSP and RLD ,it was the worst  product that UP could have seen. Historically it has been found that the BSP voters never shifted their votes to any other party. Therefore it was a foolish decision on the part of Akhilesh Yadav  to go for alliance with BSP. Results are more than the proof of this historical theory. And by not inviting Congress Party in it was one of the biggest political blunder  that gave easy way out to BJP. Similarly in Bihar Congress Party allies like RJD and other parties  have done more damage than the benefits for Congress Party. At the same time  since 2014 BJP kept on analysing 120 seats where margin of defeat was less and appointed its Pankaj Pramukh at each booth  to win atleast 30 to 45 thousands new supporters. Further there is no denial to the fact that this election was  fought on strong Hindutwa ideology. Speeches of various leaders in  various States need to be examined but more than that is the undercurrent that divided people on religious grounds on the ground of Ali and Bajrangbali .
STATE OF THE CONGRESS PARTY AND ITS FUTURE:
 Congress Party was formed in 1885 and throughout the  freedom  struggle it was a symbol of Nationalism and Secularism and as a result post independence era was dominated by it. Political parties  in front of congress were no way in a position to  challenge it but most of challenges to the party came from within. So I would like to analyse history of Indian election in 4 parts.

1.NEHRU ERA: 1947-1962                           During post independence era there was no big challenge to the Congress Party and popularity of Nehru was so commanding that other political parties couldn't pose any threat. With 3 massive victories in Parliamentay elections, Nehru was undisputed champion but soon after his death in 1962, there was a political fight inside the party led by Kamraj and Morar Ji Desai groups and for a brief period once again Congress Party came under Nehru family control when it was decided in two fractions Congress U and Congress I.Voters during this period mainly voted emotional  grounds and Indian democracy  was basically under one party rule. For good or bad they blindly supported Congress Party policies and programme .Despite growing dissatisfaction, there was no viable alternative and hence Congress never faced any big challenge.
2.Indira Gandhi Era 1967-1984
During this period charismatic personality of Indira Gandhi was so dominant that in her first phase of rule she was unchallenged and undisputed leader of Indian masses.With a victory in 1971Pakistan war, she emerged as a big personality with 353 seats in the Parliamentary elections .It was a period when politics of principle was substituted with politics of popularity.Various types of manipulations and political manoeuvring were used during the election time. However during Indira Gandhi rule power has corrupted political thinking process also and people remember this period for Emergency of 1975 than anything else. She was ousted from power due to a Grand Political Formation known as Janata Party  which was very short lived. Congress was backed in power in 1980 but Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984 and once again a political experiment with Rajiv Gandhi was made which was not so successful .And after his unfortunate death in 1990,there was an experiment with non Gandhi family congress leadership under P.V.Narsimha Rao  as PM and Sita Ram Keshari as Congress President. During this period the Congress Party has seen many political conspiracy theories and power manoeuvring. Finally once again Sonia Gandhi took over its charge which led to once again division of the Congress Party.
3.Sonia Gandhi Era:
After taking control of congress party in 1996,Sonia Gandhi tried to  rebuild it but by this time support base of congress has shrunk badly, so in the election of 2004 it was able to win only 142 seats but UPA formed the government with its allies. Party continue in power despite many constraints for 5 years and it was able to win next election in 2009 also.It was this period of rule that has caused irreparable damage to the party and under able leadership of Narender Modi ,BJP has won 286 seats and left Congress Party with 44 seats with its worst time.
4.Rahul Gandhi Era:
With growing demand for promoting Rahul Gandhi as President ,he was given charge of Congress Party. Except for election in 3 States Chatisgarh, MP and Rajsthan, there is nothing to remember about his period and finally election results of 2019,Congress party is under semblance. The Party was able to win only 52 seats and  what is more surprising that it has performed  worst in many of its ruled States like MP,Rajsthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka. If there was no such performance in Punjab and Kerala, the Congress Party was on virtual end.Continuous decreasing base in UP and Bihar is a matter of serious concern as it has almost lost its majority of cadre and traditional vote bank. And why not as Rahul Gandhi as President failed to organise party in these two States. Most of old leaders had either shifted their loyalty to some other parties or become dormant in state politics. What is even worse that in many district its units are non existent .
To save its face Priyanka Gandhi entered into full-fledged politics but that was too late for the party. It was able to win only one seat of Sonia Gandhi.
There are several reasons for contraction of the Congress Party --
1.Poor leadership at the top .Most of CWC leaders lack public exposure and public  connection.
2.Causal approach of Rahul Gandhi as President. He seems to be a leader without vision. His core team comprises of those people who have not faced election .
3.Falling and virtually  finished organisational structure in many States like UP and Bihar.
4.Lack of second ranked leaders in the party.
5.Part time politics theory of Rahul Gandhi.
6.Lack of booth level workers in most of the states  which led to lack of attachment to party ideology.
7.No government in UP and Bihar  for more than 23 years. It discouraged party workers to remain loyal.
8.Most of old supporters have either shifted their loyalty to some other parties or become dormant.

SP and BSP FUTURE:
 Both these parties have lost most of their traditional vote bank and are struggling with various types of contradictions. SP was defeated in its strong hold areas where as BSP was able to win a part of its Jatav vote bank.
Now even during the forthcoming  Assembly elections  it will be difficult for them to revive their party cadres. 

Priyanka Gandhi Entry into Full Time Politics

Today the Congress Party made a very dynamic and bold decision by making Priyanka Gandhi the General Secretary and by giving her charge of Eastern UP. Now this make UP parliamentary elections more complicated. 

When political parties like SP,BSP and RLD formed an alliance in Uby neglecting Congress, the front leaders of these party have a microscopic political vision but they forgot about one thing that Congress Party is more than 135 years old party with group level  ideological background which always gives it an edge over all other parties provided it has a dynamic leadership .

What the Congress Party was missing was a dedicated political leader and new energy. No doubt that Sonia Gandhi is not active now a days in politics but her absence will be truly filled by entry of Priyanka Gandhi. 

Congress workers and people find a glimpses of Indira Gandhi and this will help party more than expected .

Now for BJP it is a big jolt as now it has to devise a solid strategy for coping this new challenge. And if Priyanka Gandhi is able to attract both its traditional vote bank and minority votes tgen it will harm both BJP and SP and BSP alliance. Traditionally the Congress Party has a vote share of about 30% which has dwindled in the last 20 years in UP. And if Priyanka Gandhi is able to attract both its traditional vote bank and minority votes then it may win 20 to 25 seats in Parliamentary election .

With MP,Rajsthan and Chhattisgarh in its direct control,then the Congress Party can see its revival in 2019.

WHERE DO WE STAND TODAY: THE SADDEST DAY OF INDIAN POLITICAL HISTORY

Wishing all you a very happy Saturday. The day that will be remembered for the outcome of floor test in Karnataka Assembly which will decide future of democratic accountability of a political party BJP that came with a promise of transparency and accountability.
But within 4 years of Modi rule we all are in tears to see the plight of everyone in the country.Many of you might not have seen Emergency of 1975 but you can easily  compare the present situation  with that period. Most of the Media houses have either seem to have sold themselves to a party  in government or have made some unethical  compromises with that party.
If 4  supreme court judges are comming out openly to ask the people to save democracy and its institutions  then situation is surely alarming.
I still remember  how the ex Chief Justice  of India Mr Thakur had cried in a meeting in which PM was also present.It means tgat government interference in judiciary  has increased
In a country if opposition  of the government  makes you anti national     and you are asked to leave the country then  situation is very serious and certainly  demands  some bigger action.
Today the only hope comes from two sides Supreme Court and we the people of India. Hope we will wake up and fulfil our national responsibility.
In fact people of India need an emancipation from such a corrupt and rotten political system.Hope that political parties will realise  that it is high time and decide to work for the nation building  rather than being  a commodity  for sale in the political mandi. If is very difficult to  digest that people's representatives will change their political ideology  and will change the party for a briefcase .
The biggest question is that why do we select and  elect  such people as people  representatives who don't have any moral and ethical standards. In fact political  pollution  has started in 1952 during the First General Election when nearly 57%MP were from Landlords,Aristocratic and Capitalist backgrounds  and those who fought for the national freedom were ignored.It was the biggest mistake that tge Congress Party has made purposefully .
The political degeneration continued  during 1960's and 1970's with both capturing and introduction of criminals in election process  but by the end of 1977 there was some hope due to emergence of Jay Prakash Narayan and formation of Janata Party.Unfortunately this experiment failed because  our political  representatives till then were so corrupt that they failed to live upto the expectations of the people.
After that re emergence of Indira Gandhi and her political experiments the political vaues have further  in India.There was a fresh lease of air in the form of Rajiv Gandhi but he failed to face corrupt political system.
1990 was a period of Political Alliance plotics and several leaders who never imagine  to be a national leader became Prime Minister of India like I.K.Gujral and Deve Gowda.We entered the 21st century with another phase of Alliance which continued for 13 years and then came Modi government .
By now it is clear that politics has traveled 70 years and unfortunately we don't have any big leader who ever thought of making the nation a big power.

The General Election of 2019:A big Challenge for BJP

After Karnataka election,opposition has got a new lease of life as they realised that their strenth lies in the united opposition  and not in divided one.Why? Because   what had happened during the by elections in UP,Bihar and Rajsthan and in some others States ,the same can be repeated in the General election also.
There are valid reasons for this belief also.If BSP,SP and Congress Party become united in UP then the vote percentage of the 3 parties will be around 57%.And it will bring down BJP seats in the General election to nearly 20.
If same thing is done in Bihar where again these 3 parties along with RJD decide to fight General election in 2019 then vote percentage is more than 40% (18.7+16.9+6.7)and in this situation both BJP and JDU will not be able to win even 20 seats.
Similarly in Gujarat and Rajsthan the position of BJP is not good as united opposition will create serious  problems .Recently we have seen what had happened in Gujarat when the Congress fought election by forming a Grand Alliance .
And Rajsthan government is facing anti incumbency factor and united opposition will create great impact on election results and loss of 50%seats are the most probable outcome.
Only these States results will decide future of next government of BJP .Because these 4 States have 80+40+25+25=170 seats.Of which 140 seats are minimum requirement for forming government at the centre.And if include seats from MP and Chhattisgarh(29+11=40),where BJP is facing serious challenges and it will not be possible to repeat 2014 performance .As a result if BJP is not able to win 170 seats out of 210 seats then how can it even imagine to form a government
In the newly elected States under the rule of BJP may give some respite but caste conflicts created by BJP over enthusiastic workers will again increase vote percentage of the opposition.
With the loss of Telgu Desam and Shiv Sena the number of seats will decrease in these States.
So dream of repeating BJP rule becomes a distance dream.
It looks very difficult for the BJP to do something extra ordinary in West Bengal,Orissa ,Andhra Pradesh and some other South Indian .And in this situation  Amit Shah had said that he is making plan for 50 years of BJP rule in India. What are the base of his imagination he can better explain but ground realities are something else.
Most enthusiastic BJP supports may have to digest that BJP doesn't have history of repeating its rule at centre.
In the last election 3 groups voted for the BJP in large numbers Youth,Peasants and Middle class. But these classes are the worst suffering classes in the last 4 years of Modi rule  and now the water is flowing over head.Youths are highly frustrated  due to lack of job opportunities  and lofty statements of Modi have been exposed. Farmers are the second worse  suffering class who feel cheated by the BJP. No plans to improve their conditions .What had happened to the promise of doubling their income? The policy of Demonetisation and GST have created enough troubles for the business community which is a traditional vote bank of BJP.
And middle class as usually always paying enough taxes but receiving nothing.Rising prices of petroleum products are further hitting them hard. Similarly in the last election OBC and Muslims have also voted for BJP along with its traditional vote bank .It was the reason why the party was able to win 73 seats in UP.But now  equations are changing. The traditional vote bank of Adivasi in Chhattisgarh has shifted from it and with united opposition again Dalit and OBC votes will shift from BJP .Its failure to do something on black money issue and continuing frauds in baking sector has diminished its image as corruption free party.Raffel deal has created big question mark.So there are enough materials for the opposition .
Now what will be new plank of BJP for 2019 election?And how can this party repeat its performance of 2014 only God knows.
Now the situation on the side of the opposition is also not simple as there are caste equations and created social engineering. Both SP and BSP have there traditional vote bank and they will not like any shift in the vote bank.In the last election BJP had won majority of reserved seats in UPand created big problems for both SP and BSP .
Similarly the Congress Party will have to develop compromising attitude and SP experience in the last UP with the Congress was not good.Congress party should have to come out of its past euphoria .
The Grand Opposition Alliance should include more members from both South and North India. In recent times Muslims community is feeling insecure due to regular conflicts. Therefore this vote should not be allowed to divide .An alliance of Muslims,OBC,SC and ST could easily give more than 300 seats in the next election.
Now the Biggest problem who will lead the Grand Opposition Alliance The Congress Party claims and regional aspirations will pose a great problem. Matured  political thinking can solve this issue. 

Outcome Of Karnataka Elections

Today election results of Karnataka were announced and trends indicate that people have rejected leadership of Rahul Gandhi.In one after another elections  the performance of the Congress Party  is turning from bad to worst.As a result the Congress has planned to make a post poll alliance with JDS as per news reports to form a government .In the light of these developments it is very important for the Congress Party to analyse  outcome  in Karnataka Elections in two perspectives.
Firstly the Congress Party has not only alienated itself from the common issues of the public but also failed to energise its workers to face onslaught  of BJP.
Secondly  why didn't the Congress Party go for an alliance with JDS which was offered to itand now after election results  the same is being done.Even if it is being done secretly to save its face ,this is not a good political strategy in the long run.The post poll analysis has to consider certain basic issues which are very important for political prudence for a national party.

There are diffent socio-Political basics of three main parties JDS,Congress  and BJP in Karnataka as well as at the national level.And Rahul Ganghi is unable to understand  harse realities  of Indian Politics .On many occasions  he seems to be an politically  indifferent leader taking politics as a part time activity and on many occasions  he looked like a big novice political leader who behaves plotically unaware of its implications with his own party leaders and leaders of Regional political  parties.
There is no doubt that the Congress Party  has been an elite dominated party since its beginning by not taking demands of poor farmers,industrial workers and various other  social groups during the Freedom Struggle and this character of the party continued during the 20th century. Its main political supporters  were SC,ST ,OBC and Muslims.In 1990 with the implementation of Mandal Commission a major vote bank of OBC moved towards RJD,JDU,SPand BSP in the North and many Regional Political parties in the other parts of the country.Further with Babari Masjid episode and the Congress Party reluctance to act strongly  against those who were responsible for destruction of Babari Masjid forced Muslims to moved towards the SP and RJD causing  irreparable damage to the Congress Party. Now the party influence was limited to the few States in the North and some States in the South.
And in the ensuing years there was a vacuum created on the political map of India. Although with the help of an alliance called UPA the Congress Party was able to rule the nation for next 10 years under the leadership of Manmohan Singh. But tgese 10 years were marked with corruption charges and scams.It prepared  a fertile  ground for BJP to highlight failure of the Congress Party and popularize its agenda of SAB KA SATH SAB KA VIKAS.
After 2014 election  there were no looking back for tge BJP  and in one after another elections,tge party has established  its presence in 21 States.In fact it has moved one step ahead towards CONGRESS MUKTA BHARAT.
Now for the Congress Party time has come to introspect its strength and weaknesses and rebild its political base.If not the year 2019 will prove to very fatal for it.The loss of Karnataka will have far reaching consequences for the Congress in the South as well as other  State election  during  2018.
So the Congress Party is facing a great challenge.
No doubt that Karnatka  Elections were dominated by religious divisions and corruption charges  against CM Sidaramaiha but divided opposition  failed to capitalise angre against Modi Government .And finally  Congress  Party  was very beautifully swayed  away from local  issues to national  issues as a result  people  Karnataka  Elections  were more known rhetoric suitable for general election than a State election .
There are big questions  over election strategy and panning by the Congress Party because
1. Its vote bank of Dalit (17%)&Muslims(7.8%) failed to materialise and its Ligayat card also failed miserably.
2.At ground level  party cader looked unorganized and at booth levelsparty workers were not well prepared and failed to bring voters to the booth level.
3.Congress failure to form an alliance with JDS and BSP.As a result opposition vote was divided  paving way for BJP victory.
4.Government of Sidaramaiha failed to highlight its achievements  and its further failure to counter Hindutwa experiments in the coastal areas.
5.Certain immature statements of Rahul Gandhi during the election rallies.

Now if this development of forming an alliance with JDS is true and happens to materialise then for the  time being,the Congress Party will be able to save its face in Karnataka. But BJP will not sit as a fence sitter after emerging as a single largest party and plan some political tricks .It seems that political drama in Karnataka may continue for some more time.

Karnataka Election :A Litmus Test Of Modi

In 2014,Modi came to power riding high on the anti incumbency wave of 10 years of the Congress rule.There were  many scams and corruption cases durin the Congress rule and it provides a readymade ground for BJP to highlight failure of the government .
The massive mandate for BJP in the election of 2014 was primarily due to people getting fade with the Congress incompetence to handle corruption and black money issues .But now after 4 years of BJP rule people are confused as to why to vote for BJP in 2019 election.
There was election in the Gujrat in which BJP was somehow able to save its face and  formed the government but this election has clearly shown  that Modi magic is on downslide.This fact is further  strengthened by the fact that when opposition forms a strategic  alliance considering all political elements  then,it will be difficult for the BJP to repeat its performance of 2014.United opposition is a serious threat  to BJP  government and if in Karnataka the same thing could have been done then BJP dream to open gates in the South could have easily shattered .
Everything will depend on the how does JDS performs in the election as this party will be the king maker in Karnataka. On Polling day CM Siddaramaiha reacted very cryptically .
We are very-very confident that Congress party will come back to power with a complete majority,” CM Siddaramaiah said in Mysuru's Varuna. On being asked about Yeddyurappa's statement that he will be sworn-in as the new CM, Siddaramaiah said Yeddyurappa is "mentally disturbed". 

Demonetisation and Its After Effects

The issue of Demonetisation is very much relevant  to the residents of India because in the  post independent  India  it is one of  the  most talked step by  the  Government. Demonetisation  was partial in India  as the government  only demonetised Rs.1000 and 500 currency  notes.People  were give a stipulated  time frame  for  deposit  of  their currency  notes in the  banks and the whole  nation was in line leaving behind their regular  work.

Now after  5 months of post Demonetisation  period  the time has come to analyse its effects  on  Indian Economy. 
Demonetisation  is a blunder  by the present  government  as it was introduced  without  proper  planning  .Its objectives  were neither  finalised nor well defined. 
As per latest  analysis  of  the RBI  and other financial  institutions  ,the government  has  huge negative  Opportunity  Cost of Demonetisation and as a resident  of  the  nation we too have  to  incurre  a very big cost in the form of Physical  Cost of waiting  for  our own assets  to be converted  into  liquidity. 
In fact, the post Demonetisation  period  has resulted  into  slowing  down of the economy  by 2%of GDP. It is a very modest  data because   actual  damage  to  the  economy  will be much bigger in the long run.

Furthermore,  accelerated  loss in the manufacturing  , real estate ,and construction  sectors  is very much frightening  as these sectors  create  jobs for the people. 
As if this was less the government  has  further  dealt  another  blow with the  introduction  of  GST with such a high rate slabs.Although  GST  in itself  is  not  a  bad step but question  arises was its timing  correct?
In short future  of  the  Indian  Economy  for the coming  two years seems to be bad bad as growth parameters  are  disheartening. 


Indian  Economy  consists  of  two sectors Organized  and unorganised  and it was unorganised  sector  consisting  of  medium  and small  businesses  that was worst  hit.Lacs of the people  lost their jobs in the initial  stages  as most of the  activities  of  this sector  require lots of cash and most of these industries  were forced to cut down their production  and employment. Particularly  labour force  from rural  areas  were rendered  unemployed  and  left for their  respective  places.
Later on when Demand fell in the economy  due to lack  of  income  generated  by  the  unorganised  sector , it has affected  other sectors  and as a  chain reaction  in the economy  there was  a fall in the GDP in the first quarter of the Financial  year. 
 Now with the publication of  RBI report on Demonetisation   that 99%currency  is back to the  banks during  the  period of deposits, the story seems to be more complicated. Either  there were little  amount of Illegal  currency  in the economy or the illegal  currency  were deposited  as legal  currency  in the banks.
The RBI annual report said that “subject to future corrections based on verification process when completed,” the estimated value of the banned notes it “received” was Rs 15.28 trillion. This compares with the Rs 15.44 trillion of the invalidated notes that were in circulation as of 8 November, according to data provided by minister of state for finance Arjun Meghwal to Parliament on 21 January.
It seems to be a matter  of  great concerns  as if second part is true  then our banking  system  needs complete  overhauling. It is one of the  BIGGEST  SCAM  of modern century  in which a country  flooded  with illegal  currency  failed to dictate  it.According to  estimates provided by the Government  on the illegal  currency  and black money, these are about Rs.400000 crores and if all this money was deposited  in  banks,now the banking sector  will be under great pressure  to pay interest  on these deposits. Earlier  this  money  was not in the banking  system  and was laying in the people  lockers or in their custody and was not creating  any problem  for the banking sector. 
Now the second part "What about unearthing  Black Money "As per the  Estimates  of World  Bank and other International  Financial  Institutions  our black money  economy  is  nearly  three times of GDP  at current  prices.
Where has that money gone if it was not deposited. 
Therefore  Demonetisation  was an unthoughtful act full of dichotomy and its dynamics  are beyond  the  perception  of  common  man.
The cost of printing  new currency  notes is nearly  two times more than its actual  gains to the  RBI. 
And at a time when92% Fiscal  Deficit has already  been  created in just 5 months of the current  Financial  Year, coming time will face stiff  inflation. Let us see what the government  can do because  it has to face election  in 2019 and by any means next two Budgets  will be Populist  Budget..