The General Election of 2019:A big Challenge for BJP

After Karnataka election,opposition has got a new lease of life as they realised that their strenth lies in the united opposition  and not in divided one.Why? Because   what had happened during the by elections in UP,Bihar and Rajsthan and in some others States ,the same can be repeated in the General election also.
There are valid reasons for this belief also.If BSP,SP and Congress Party become united in UP then the vote percentage of the 3 parties will be around 57%.And it will bring down BJP seats in the General election to nearly 20.
If same thing is done in Bihar where again these 3 parties along with RJD decide to fight General election in 2019 then vote percentage is more than 40% (18.7+16.9+6.7)and in this situation both BJP and JDU will not be able to win even 20 seats.
Similarly in Gujarat and Rajsthan the position of BJP is not good as united opposition will create serious  problems .Recently we have seen what had happened in Gujarat when the Congress fought election by forming a Grand Alliance .
And Rajsthan government is facing anti incumbency factor and united opposition will create great impact on election results and loss of 50%seats are the most probable outcome.
Only these States results will decide future of next government of BJP .Because these 4 States have 80+40+25+25=170 seats.Of which 140 seats are minimum requirement for forming government at the centre.And if include seats from MP and Chhattisgarh(29+11=40),where BJP is facing serious challenges and it will not be possible to repeat 2014 performance .As a result if BJP is not able to win 170 seats out of 210 seats then how can it even imagine to form a government
In the newly elected States under the rule of BJP may give some respite but caste conflicts created by BJP over enthusiastic workers will again increase vote percentage of the opposition.
With the loss of Telgu Desam and Shiv Sena the number of seats will decrease in these States.
So dream of repeating BJP rule becomes a distance dream.
It looks very difficult for the BJP to do something extra ordinary in West Bengal,Orissa ,Andhra Pradesh and some other South Indian .And in this situation  Amit Shah had said that he is making plan for 50 years of BJP rule in India. What are the base of his imagination he can better explain but ground realities are something else.
Most enthusiastic BJP supports may have to digest that BJP doesn't have history of repeating its rule at centre.
In the last election 3 groups voted for the BJP in large numbers Youth,Peasants and Middle class. But these classes are the worst suffering classes in the last 4 years of Modi rule  and now the water is flowing over head.Youths are highly frustrated  due to lack of job opportunities  and lofty statements of Modi have been exposed. Farmers are the second worse  suffering class who feel cheated by the BJP. No plans to improve their conditions .What had happened to the promise of doubling their income? The policy of Demonetisation and GST have created enough troubles for the business community which is a traditional vote bank of BJP.
And middle class as usually always paying enough taxes but receiving nothing.Rising prices of petroleum products are further hitting them hard. Similarly in the last election OBC and Muslims have also voted for BJP along with its traditional vote bank .It was the reason why the party was able to win 73 seats in UP.But now  equations are changing. The traditional vote bank of Adivasi in Chhattisgarh has shifted from it and with united opposition again Dalit and OBC votes will shift from BJP .Its failure to do something on black money issue and continuing frauds in baking sector has diminished its image as corruption free party.Raffel deal has created big question mark.So there are enough materials for the opposition .
Now what will be new plank of BJP for 2019 election?And how can this party repeat its performance of 2014 only God knows.
Now the situation on the side of the opposition is also not simple as there are caste equations and created social engineering. Both SP and BSP have there traditional vote bank and they will not like any shift in the vote bank.In the last election BJP had won majority of reserved seats in UPand created big problems for both SP and BSP .
Similarly the Congress Party will have to develop compromising attitude and SP experience in the last UP with the Congress was not good.Congress party should have to come out of its past euphoria .
The Grand Opposition Alliance should include more members from both South and North India. In recent times Muslims community is feeling insecure due to regular conflicts. Therefore this vote should not be allowed to divide .An alliance of Muslims,OBC,SC and ST could easily give more than 300 seats in the next election.
Now the Biggest problem who will lead the Grand Opposition Alliance The Congress Party claims and regional aspirations will pose a great problem. Matured  political thinking can solve this issue. 

Outcome Of Karnataka Elections

Today election results of Karnataka were announced and trends indicate that people have rejected leadership of Rahul Gandhi.In one after another elections  the performance of the Congress Party  is turning from bad to worst.As a result the Congress has planned to make a post poll alliance with JDS as per news reports to form a government .In the light of these developments it is very important for the Congress Party to analyse  outcome  in Karnataka Elections in two perspectives.
Firstly the Congress Party has not only alienated itself from the common issues of the public but also failed to energise its workers to face onslaught  of BJP.
Secondly  why didn't the Congress Party go for an alliance with JDS which was offered to itand now after election results  the same is being done.Even if it is being done secretly to save its face ,this is not a good political strategy in the long run.The post poll analysis has to consider certain basic issues which are very important for political prudence for a national party.

There are diffent socio-Political basics of three main parties JDS,Congress  and BJP in Karnataka as well as at the national level.And Rahul Ganghi is unable to understand  harse realities  of Indian Politics .On many occasions  he seems to be an politically  indifferent leader taking politics as a part time activity and on many occasions  he looked like a big novice political leader who behaves plotically unaware of its implications with his own party leaders and leaders of Regional political  parties.
There is no doubt that the Congress Party  has been an elite dominated party since its beginning by not taking demands of poor farmers,industrial workers and various other  social groups during the Freedom Struggle and this character of the party continued during the 20th century. Its main political supporters  were SC,ST ,OBC and Muslims.In 1990 with the implementation of Mandal Commission a major vote bank of OBC moved towards RJD,JDU,SPand BSP in the North and many Regional Political parties in the other parts of the country.Further with Babari Masjid episode and the Congress Party reluctance to act strongly  against those who were responsible for destruction of Babari Masjid forced Muslims to moved towards the SP and RJD causing  irreparable damage to the Congress Party. Now the party influence was limited to the few States in the North and some States in the South.
And in the ensuing years there was a vacuum created on the political map of India. Although with the help of an alliance called UPA the Congress Party was able to rule the nation for next 10 years under the leadership of Manmohan Singh. But tgese 10 years were marked with corruption charges and scams.It prepared  a fertile  ground for BJP to highlight failure of the Congress Party and popularize its agenda of SAB KA SATH SAB KA VIKAS.
After 2014 election  there were no looking back for tge BJP  and in one after another elections,tge party has established  its presence in 21 States.In fact it has moved one step ahead towards CONGRESS MUKTA BHARAT.
Now for the Congress Party time has come to introspect its strength and weaknesses and rebild its political base.If not the year 2019 will prove to very fatal for it.The loss of Karnataka will have far reaching consequences for the Congress in the South as well as other  State election  during  2018.
So the Congress Party is facing a great challenge.
No doubt that Karnatka  Elections were dominated by religious divisions and corruption charges  against CM Sidaramaiha but divided opposition  failed to capitalise angre against Modi Government .And finally  Congress  Party  was very beautifully swayed  away from local  issues to national  issues as a result  people  Karnataka  Elections  were more known rhetoric suitable for general election than a State election .
There are big questions  over election strategy and panning by the Congress Party because
1. Its vote bank of Dalit (17%)&Muslims(7.8%) failed to materialise and its Ligayat card also failed miserably.
2.At ground level  party cader looked unorganized and at booth levelsparty workers were not well prepared and failed to bring voters to the booth level.
3.Congress failure to form an alliance with JDS and BSP.As a result opposition vote was divided  paving way for BJP victory.
4.Government of Sidaramaiha failed to highlight its achievements  and its further failure to counter Hindutwa experiments in the coastal areas.
5.Certain immature statements of Rahul Gandhi during the election rallies.

Now if this development of forming an alliance with JDS is true and happens to materialise then for the  time being,the Congress Party will be able to save its face in Karnataka. But BJP will not sit as a fence sitter after emerging as a single largest party and plan some political tricks .It seems that political drama in Karnataka may continue for some more time.

Karnataka Election :A Litmus Test Of Modi

In 2014,Modi came to power riding high on the anti incumbency wave of 10 years of the Congress rule.There were  many scams and corruption cases durin the Congress rule and it provides a readymade ground for BJP to highlight failure of the government .
The massive mandate for BJP in the election of 2014 was primarily due to people getting fade with the Congress incompetence to handle corruption and black money issues .But now after 4 years of BJP rule people are confused as to why to vote for BJP in 2019 election.
There was election in the Gujrat in which BJP was somehow able to save its face and  formed the government but this election has clearly shown  that Modi magic is on downslide.This fact is further  strengthened by the fact that when opposition forms a strategic  alliance considering all political elements  then,it will be difficult for the BJP to repeat its performance of 2014.United opposition is a serious threat  to BJP  government and if in Karnataka the same thing could have been done then BJP dream to open gates in the South could have easily shattered .
Everything will depend on the how does JDS performs in the election as this party will be the king maker in Karnataka. On Polling day CM Siddaramaiha reacted very cryptically .
We are very-very confident that Congress party will come back to power with a complete majority,” CM Siddaramaiah said in Mysuru's Varuna. On being asked about Yeddyurappa's statement that he will be sworn-in as the new CM, Siddaramaiah said Yeddyurappa is "mentally disturbed". 

Demonetisation and Its After Effects

The issue of Demonetisation is very much relevant  to the residents of India because in the  post independent  India  it is one of  the  most talked step by  the  Government. Demonetisation  was partial in India  as the government  only demonetised Rs.1000 and 500 currency  notes.People  were give a stipulated  time frame  for  deposit  of  their currency  notes in the  banks and the whole  nation was in line leaving behind their regular  work.

Now after  5 months of post Demonetisation  period  the time has come to analyse its effects  on  Indian Economy. 
Demonetisation  is a blunder  by the present  government  as it was introduced  without  proper  planning  .Its objectives  were neither  finalised nor well defined. 
As per latest  analysis  of  the RBI  and other financial  institutions  ,the government  has  huge negative  Opportunity  Cost of Demonetisation and as a resident  of  the  nation we too have  to  incurre  a very big cost in the form of Physical  Cost of waiting  for  our own assets  to be converted  into  liquidity. 
In fact, the post Demonetisation  period  has resulted  into  slowing  down of the economy  by 2%of GDP. It is a very modest  data because   actual  damage  to  the  economy  will be much bigger in the long run.

Furthermore,  accelerated  loss in the manufacturing  , real estate ,and construction  sectors  is very much frightening  as these sectors  create  jobs for the people. 
As if this was less the government  has  further  dealt  another  blow with the  introduction  of  GST with such a high rate slabs.Although  GST  in itself  is  not  a  bad step but question  arises was its timing  correct?
In short future  of  the  Indian  Economy  for the coming  two years seems to be bad bad as growth parameters  are  disheartening. 


Indian  Economy  consists  of  two sectors Organized  and unorganised  and it was unorganised  sector  consisting  of  medium  and small  businesses  that was worst  hit.Lacs of the people  lost their jobs in the initial  stages  as most of the  activities  of  this sector  require lots of cash and most of these industries  were forced to cut down their production  and employment. Particularly  labour force  from rural  areas  were rendered  unemployed  and  left for their  respective  places.
Later on when Demand fell in the economy  due to lack  of  income  generated  by  the  unorganised  sector , it has affected  other sectors  and as a  chain reaction  in the economy  there was  a fall in the GDP in the first quarter of the Financial  year. 
 Now with the publication of  RBI report on Demonetisation   that 99%currency  is back to the  banks during  the  period of deposits, the story seems to be more complicated. Either  there were little  amount of Illegal  currency  in the economy or the illegal  currency  were deposited  as legal  currency  in the banks.
The RBI annual report said that “subject to future corrections based on verification process when completed,” the estimated value of the banned notes it “received” was Rs 15.28 trillion. This compares with the Rs 15.44 trillion of the invalidated notes that were in circulation as of 8 November, according to data provided by minister of state for finance Arjun Meghwal to Parliament on 21 January.
It seems to be a matter  of  great concerns  as if second part is true  then our banking  system  needs complete  overhauling. It is one of the  BIGGEST  SCAM  of modern century  in which a country  flooded  with illegal  currency  failed to dictate  it.According to  estimates provided by the Government  on the illegal  currency  and black money, these are about Rs.400000 crores and if all this money was deposited  in  banks,now the banking sector  will be under great pressure  to pay interest  on these deposits. Earlier  this  money  was not in the banking  system  and was laying in the people  lockers or in their custody and was not creating  any problem  for the banking sector. 
Now the second part "What about unearthing  Black Money "As per the  Estimates  of World  Bank and other International  Financial  Institutions  our black money  economy  is  nearly  three times of GDP  at current  prices.
Where has that money gone if it was not deposited. 
Therefore  Demonetisation  was an unthoughtful act full of dichotomy and its dynamics  are beyond  the  perception  of  common  man.
The cost of printing  new currency  notes is nearly  two times more than its actual  gains to the  RBI. 
And at a time when92% Fiscal  Deficit has already  been  created in just 5 months of the current  Financial  Year, coming time will face stiff  inflation. Let us see what the government  can do because  it has to face election  in 2019 and by any means next two Budgets  will be Populist  Budget.. 

Beginning of the End of the Congress

Today's election  results  for 5 State Assemblies are great indications  of downfall  of a  great party as since  2014 Parliamentary  election  its miseries are increasing. At the  same  time,  the trends which most probably  will  be  converted  into  the  results,  are also an indicator  of what is called  social  engineering  and election  management. With no sign of political  maturity  ,the Congress  Party  is repeating  its last election  mistakes. Its loyalty  towards Gandhi family  has become  a  double  edged  sword.The more  it depends  and defends its allegiance  to the family  the more are its defeats  and disintegration. 

Let me be very clear  that  for centuries  the same Gandhi  family was able  to  provide  great leadership  and political  wisdom  to the  Party but since  the death of Indira  Gandhi, no matter  what  ever  has been  done  and whosoever  may ruled  the Party ,its actual  strength  started  to  decline. For a brief  period  of  1984 to 1990 it seemed  that Rajeev Gandhi  is able  to  get  support  and  victory  in the  election  but very soon his own weaknesses  resulted  into  a  great defeat  of the party.
After him although Sonia Gandhi  was able to bring the  Congress  Party  into the  power but at the cost of its second  generation  leadership. Unfortunately  Gandhi  family  and the  Congress  Party  itself  has a habit  of  keeping party under its belt and doesn't  allow  new leaders to grow  or the old leaders to dominate. It is often  said that for the SUNRISE OF THE CONGRESS  PARTY  SON RISE  SHOULD BE ABANDONED. 
But who listens. What can be worse  that in this election  the Congress  Party  has been  thrown  out  and is replaced  by  BJP and  the Left  Parties. In the Eastern  State like  Assam the top leadership  of the  Congress  Party  didn't  listen  to its State leadership. As a result  there was defection in the party .Secondly  Rahul Gandhi  mismanaged Assam election. It reflects  his political  immaturity  and aloofness  towards local issues. At the same  time  BJP  was able  to capitalise  local issues. 

In Tamil Nadu it allies DMK is the same  party which  was always  anti Congress. It didn't  give  good taste  to the voters in TN.
Today's  election  results  shows many new trends of Indian politics. Despite violence  and corruption  Indian  voters  voted in the favour  of TMC  in the West Bengal. Historically  West Bengal  has been  a State  of  Left Parties  and had been  ruled by the Left Ideology. Surprisingly  in the last Assembly  election  TMC challenged  dominance  of  the  Left and came  in the power.Now despite  so many issues  against  TMC it has been  able  to  get  majority  in the West Bengal. It is because  with  the  same instruments  Left is getting  defeats  ie violence  and power during the election. 

As regards  to  Tamil Nadu is concerned  it is remarkable  election  engineering  of Jay Lalita that led to this victory. It also  offers  a  simple  explanation  that Indian  voters can still  be  managed  by  the  money  and free gifts.Jay Lalita  way was made easy with fractional  divisions  in the  DMK.

Paris Attack: An Inhuman and Barbaric Act

France  will never  forget  Black Friday  on 13th  of  November  2015 when there were multiple barbaric  and dastardly  terrorist  attacks  at different  places  in Paris killing innocent people.  France has to declare a state of emergency and more than 15000 army personnel were deployed to counter these attacks.People  are still  in a  shock  as how within  an hour  the whole  thing  has changed  as a friendly  football  match between France  and Germany  ended in a stamped  causing many people  injured  and a few dead and a theater performance ended into cry and shouting.After the first  blast there were five more  attacks  in the different  parts  of  Paris resulting  into death  of 127 people  and injuring  more than 350 people. 

Without  any delay  ISIS has taken  the  responsibility  and announcing  that this attack is the revenge  for French attack on  Syria and threatened  to carry more attacks  if France  doesn't  stop its bombing  on Syrian territory.And the timing  of  these attacks is more important  as Indian  PM is on his visit to England  and Iranian  President  was to start his tour of Europe. The world leaders should  take this attack as another war and they must decide a strategy  for terrorism. USA and its allies  now can't  continue  with the concept  of  good terrorism  and bad terrorism. And UNO should  not  limit its action only by condemning  such barbaric  attacks but will have to  take  decisive  action rather its image  will be dented  badly.Interference  in Syrian  affairs without any sanction  from either  UNO or the World community  by USA and its allies  may be cited as one reason  for the present attacks in France  but its root causes are much deeper  than  we could see them.

We are facing an act of war organized by an army of terrorist jihadists that had already organized and planned attacks in the past," French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said Saturday evening. "Five attacks have been thwarted since this summer. But we have always said that there is no such thing as zero risk. We have always said that France could face new terrorist attacks." The whole world stand united with France in tgis hour of tragedy  and grief.Indian PM condemned  this barbaric  attacks  on the innocent  people. Similarly  Henry  Clinton said  "Our prayers are with the people of France tonight, but that is not enough," she said. "We need to have a resolve that will bring the world together to root out the kind of radical jihadist ideology that motivates organizations like ISIS, a barbaric, ruthless, violent jihadist terrorist group."

Recently  it has been  observed  that  Europe  has become  a  centre  of  major  terrorist  activities  and France  has been  targeted  in the worst ways.Ever since  the  Iraq war in 1990's and NATO nations participation  in  that war ,Europe  has become  a targeted  place  for terrorist  attacks. With growing fundamentalism in the Middle  East countries and realisation  that Western countries  are not only eroding  their religious  and cultural  identities  but also  squeezing  their national wealth ,there has been  strong resentment  among the  people  against the western  world and its policies.

Therefore  the plot of the  present  day  attacks  in the  different  parts of the  Europe  are a reaction to  the  historical  mistakes  committed  by USA  and its allies since  the  second  World War. Unnecessary  interference  in the cultural  and religious  beliefs  for the  petty  economic  gains by USA  and  its allies have  created  great resentment  among the  people  in Muslim  world. And now European  people  are paying  for  the  mistakes  committed  by  their leaders in the  past.

People  must note that Sadam Hussain rule in Iraq was a  balancing  force in the Middle  East  and with its destruction  that balancing  force is now missing  as a result  there is a vacuum  which is allowing  the growth  of terrorism  in this region.  ISIS is one of them.Its ideology  is clear :establishment of A Bigger Muslim World.And the main reason behind the growth  of  ISIS  in  this region  is conflict  between  Shia and Sunni dominance. It the  reason  why  they want to dethrone  Asad government  in Syria and Iraq who are Shia .Therefore  whenever there is any opposition  and whosoever  is against  this  ideology  there is strong reaction by ISIS in the form of terrorist  attacks. Unfortunately  France  has to bear it again  and  again  in  recent  times. 

Firstly  when a magazine  office Charlie Hebdo was attacked  by  the  fundamentalists and its editor was killed. After  that  there was another bombing  attack in France  killing  people. These incidents  were indications  of  what is coming  in the future. More attacks  and more destruction. Now question  arises why only France? It is because  in this county there has been  growing  fundamentalism  among youths and there is  a strong under current in French society  which is encouraging  youths to join terrorist  groups.
Furthermore  with the  formation  of  the  European  Union  and single  visa system  it has become  very convenient  for  terrorist  to move from  one country  to another  and create its sleeper cells across  the  boarder.

As a result  Europe  has become  a heaven  for such organisations  to get support  and money  from the  youths. There has been  large scale  recruitment  in ISIS  from these countries  and it has made France  a soft target for attacks. 
The world must and should  criticise  this inhuman  attack but at the  same  time  it has to  be  ready  for  the  more such attacks as ISIS  leadership  has given  clear cut indication  of  it.And such terrorist  organisations  have a simple  ideology  either you finish them or they will  finish you.Now it is upto the World community  to decide  how to handle  this issue  of terrorism  as for the first  time  USA  and  its allies  are facing  this challenge. 
ISIS  is  under tremendous  pressure  due Russian  support  to Asad government  and in the recent  attacks  by Russian  planes it has lost some of its strategic  towns.Similarly  offensive  carried  out  by  USA  and its allies  have resulted  into the loss of Mosul and other towns disturbing  free movements  of ISIS  fighters. Therefore  ISIS  has  to take some dashing  acts of attacks  outside  the  Middle  East  region  to show  its strength. Since  it has  good number  of  supporters  in France these attacks  were easier  to  carry out there.According  to French authorities  7 out of 8 killed terrorists  are French nationals showing how much deep rooted are these groups on French  soil.
And growing  influence  of  ISIS  in Europe  can easily  be  seen  when there is a support  system  of suppliers  of  weapons  and other logistics. Furthermore  ISIS  has  also  proved  that  it can fight both offensively  and defensively  in and outside  the  Middle  East. Therefore  the time  has come  when the whole  world  has to take  united stand in pointing out who are the supporters  of  terrorism  and has to deal sternly  with them. Secondly  financial  support  of ISIS  has to be  broken  down  so that arms  purchases by it are controlled. Every  one knows  that there are many oil firms from Turkey  buying oil from ISIS  and selling  it  in the market and in return  they are getting  both money  and arms.Such nexus  needs to be  broken. 

Victory of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar

The result of the most awaited election  in India is out and it has shaken faith of many political  pandits but it has at the same  time  proved a fact that India is not a politically  immature contry rather during the decades of 21st  century the people  have become  increasingly  politically  aware and mature.This election has also  taught many lessons to the nation and to many political parties especially  to BJP and Congress. To the BJP it has given a severe  jolt and dented the image  of PM Modi as Vikash Purus (man of development ). The  outcome  of  the  election  has also proved that  in India  no political  party  can take people  for granted  and allure or misguide them on frivolous  issues  of religion  and communalism. And to the Congress Party this election has made it clear that now it has to be ready to play second fiddle and to be a partner in the coallition rather to be the leader.

Let go back to historical facts that Bihar has been  a  land of reforms movements and political  experiments of many great leaders like Mahatma Gandhi and Jai Prakash Narayan and therefore  if the BJP has thought that it can lead the people  on religious  lines then it can be  said  that  its top leaderships  has no understanding  of  political fibre  of Bihar.Since independence Bihar has been  a centre  of  major political  movements and only during  80's of the last century  it experienced a political  downfall or perversion  when a group of spineless  leaders downgraded it in the eyes of nation.

Let us now focus  on  the  recent  election  and its outcomes. When Lalu Prasad Yadav decided  to  form an alliance  with  the JDU and the Congress  Party then as per Political  Airthematics  Mahagathbandhan  has gained a distinctive  edge over its rival  BJP  led NDA alliance. It is because  with around 18.7%Yadav voters combined with OBC and Muslim votes ;Mahagathbandhan has little  chances  of  debacles thanthe NDA  which is largely  dependent  on  the  upper cast and urba voters.

Secondly  with the passage  of  time youth has become  dischanted with illusions created by Modi.Therefore  NDA was fighting a  lost battle  from day one.As a result BJP  leaders devided to communalise the election which fortunately  did not materialised  in Bihar.Now both the strong weapons failing flat BJP has tasted  a worst type of defeat that has not only disheartened  its cader but also gave  chances  to those leaders who have  been  suffering  due to Modi cult in the  party.As a result voice of desent and criticisms  are growing  up in the party.

Now question  is who is to be blamed? Firstly Amit Shah with his arrogance  and out of people  touch.He is being blamed for alleiniating  veteran  BJP leaders in the state  and banking on those leaders who have  no political  ground in Bihar. More over  a decision  to  give more importance  to Manjhi and his party has disturbed  caste equations and seat distribution among the NDA allies and resulted into chaos  than  the actual political outcome in the election. 

Then the issue  of reservation  raised by Mohan Bhagwat the leader of RSS at this juncture  was a fatal  mistake  and combined  with  communal incidents  of Atari in Haryana and Dadari  in UP  have  done enough damage  to  the  party.It actually left Muslim voters no other choice  than  to  stand with  Mahagathbandhan. 
Finally both Lalu and Nitish Kumar were fighting the election  of their survival  and they were crafty enough to seal all the possible  loop holes in their planning.